Climatic factors driving invasion of the tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) into new areas of Trentino, northern Italy

BackgroundThe tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), vector of several emerging diseases, is expanding into more northerly latitudes as well as into higher altitudes in northern Italy. Changes in the pattern of distribution of the tiger mosquito may affect the potential spread of infectious diseases tra...

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Autores: Roiz Pereda, David, Neteler, Markus, Castellani, Cristina, Arnoldi, Daniele, Rizzoli, Annapaola
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2011
País:España
Institución:Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha
Repositorio:RUIdeRA. Repositorio Institucional de la UCLM
OAI Identifier:oai:ruidera.uclm.es:10578/47329
Acceso en línea:https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0014800
https://hdl.handle.net/10578/47329
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0014800
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Cartography
Eggs
Europe
Italy
Mosquitoes
Population density
Rain
Winter
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spelling Climatic factors driving invasion of the tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) into new areas of Trentino, northern ItalyRoiz Pereda, DavidNeteler, MarkusCastellani, CristinaArnoldi, DanieleRizzoli, AnnapaolaCartographyEggsEuropeItalyMosquitoesPopulation densityRainWinterBackgroundThe tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), vector of several emerging diseases, is expanding into more northerly latitudes as well as into higher altitudes in northern Italy. Changes in the pattern of distribution of the tiger mosquito may affect the potential spread of infectious diseases transmitted by this species in Europe. Therefore, predicting suitable areas of future establishment and spread is essential for planning early prevention and control strategies.Methodology/Principal FindingsTo identify the areas currently most suitable for the occurrence of the tiger mosquito in the Province of Trento, we combined field entomological observations with analyses of satellite temperature data (MODIS Land Surface Temperature: LST) and human population data. We determine threshold conditions for the survival of overwintering eggs and for adult survival using both January mean temperatures and annual mean temperatures. We show that the 0°C LST threshold for January mean temperatures and the 11°C threshold for annual mean temperatures provide the best predictors for identifying the areas that could potentially support populations of this mosquito. In fact, human population density and distance to human settlements appear to be less important variables affecting mosquito distribution in this area. Finally, we evaluated the future establishment and spread of this species in relation to predicted climate warming by considering the A2 scenario for 2050 statistically downscaled at regional level in which winter and annual temperatures increase by 1.5 and 1°C, respectively.Conclusions/SignificanceMODIS satellite LST data are useful for accurately predicting potential areas of tiger mosquito distribution and for revealing the range limits of this species in mountainous areas, predictions which could be extended to an European scale. We show that the observed trend of increasing temperatures due to climate change could facilitate further invasion of Ae. albopictus into new areas.PLOS202620262011info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfapplication/pdfhttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0014800https://hdl.handle.net/10578/47329https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0014800reponame:RUIdeRA. Repositorio Institucional de la UCLMinstname:Universidad de Castilla-La ManchaInglésinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:ruidera.uclm.es:10578/473292026-05-27T07:36:41Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Climatic factors driving invasion of the tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) into new areas of Trentino, northern Italy
title Climatic factors driving invasion of the tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) into new areas of Trentino, northern Italy
spellingShingle Climatic factors driving invasion of the tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) into new areas of Trentino, northern Italy
Roiz Pereda, David
Cartography
Eggs
Europe
Italy
Mosquitoes
Population density
Rain
Winter
title_short Climatic factors driving invasion of the tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) into new areas of Trentino, northern Italy
title_full Climatic factors driving invasion of the tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) into new areas of Trentino, northern Italy
title_fullStr Climatic factors driving invasion of the tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) into new areas of Trentino, northern Italy
title_full_unstemmed Climatic factors driving invasion of the tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) into new areas of Trentino, northern Italy
title_sort Climatic factors driving invasion of the tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) into new areas of Trentino, northern Italy
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Roiz Pereda, David
Neteler, Markus
Castellani, Cristina
Arnoldi, Daniele
Rizzoli, Annapaola
author Roiz Pereda, David
author_facet Roiz Pereda, David
Neteler, Markus
Castellani, Cristina
Arnoldi, Daniele
Rizzoli, Annapaola
author_role author
author2 Neteler, Markus
Castellani, Cristina
Arnoldi, Daniele
Rizzoli, Annapaola
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Cartography
Eggs
Europe
Italy
Mosquitoes
Population density
Rain
Winter
topic Cartography
Eggs
Europe
Italy
Mosquitoes
Population density
Rain
Winter
description BackgroundThe tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), vector of several emerging diseases, is expanding into more northerly latitudes as well as into higher altitudes in northern Italy. Changes in the pattern of distribution of the tiger mosquito may affect the potential spread of infectious diseases transmitted by this species in Europe. Therefore, predicting suitable areas of future establishment and spread is essential for planning early prevention and control strategies.Methodology/Principal FindingsTo identify the areas currently most suitable for the occurrence of the tiger mosquito in the Province of Trento, we combined field entomological observations with analyses of satellite temperature data (MODIS Land Surface Temperature: LST) and human population data. We determine threshold conditions for the survival of overwintering eggs and for adult survival using both January mean temperatures and annual mean temperatures. We show that the 0°C LST threshold for January mean temperatures and the 11°C threshold for annual mean temperatures provide the best predictors for identifying the areas that could potentially support populations of this mosquito. In fact, human population density and distance to human settlements appear to be less important variables affecting mosquito distribution in this area. Finally, we evaluated the future establishment and spread of this species in relation to predicted climate warming by considering the A2 scenario for 2050 statistically downscaled at regional level in which winter and annual temperatures increase by 1.5 and 1°C, respectively.Conclusions/SignificanceMODIS satellite LST data are useful for accurately predicting potential areas of tiger mosquito distribution and for revealing the range limits of this species in mountainous areas, predictions which could be extended to an European scale. We show that the observed trend of increasing temperatures due to climate change could facilitate further invasion of Ae. albopictus into new areas.
publishDate 2011
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2011
2026
2026
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0014800
https://hdl.handle.net/10578/47329
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0014800
url https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0014800
https://hdl.handle.net/10578/47329
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0014800
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv PLOS
publisher.none.fl_str_mv PLOS
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:RUIdeRA. Repositorio Institucional de la UCLM
instname:Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha
instname_str Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha
reponame_str RUIdeRA. Repositorio Institucional de la UCLM
collection RUIdeRA. Repositorio Institucional de la UCLM
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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