Extreme precipitation on consecutive days occurs more often in a warming climate

Extreme precipitation occurring on consecutive days may substantially increase the risk of related impacts, but changes in such events have not been studied at a global scale. Here we use a unique global dataset based on in situ observations and multimodel historical and future simulations to analyz...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Du, Haibo, Donat, Markus|||0000-0002-0608-7288, Zong, Shengwei, Alexander, Lisa V., Manzanas, Rodrigo
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2022
País:España
Institución:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
Repositorio:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/366505
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2117/366505
https://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0140.1
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Precipitation forecasting
Climate science
Climate prediction
Extreme events
Precipitation
Climate change
Climate records
Canvis climàtics
Simulació per ordinador
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia
id ES_1b17ffd59a087adfec15e36a0cffbdb2
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repository_id_str
spelling Extreme precipitation on consecutive days occurs more often in a warming climateDu, HaiboDonat, Markus|||0000-0002-0608-7288Zong, ShengweiAlexander, Lisa V.Manzanas, RodrigoPrecipitation forecastingClimate scienceClimate predictionExtreme eventsPrecipitationClimate changeClimate recordsCanvis climàticsSimulació per ordinadorÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologiaExtreme precipitation occurring on consecutive days may substantially increase the risk of related impacts, but changes in such events have not been studied at a global scale. Here we use a unique global dataset based on in situ observations and multimodel historical and future simulations to analyze the changes in the frequency of extreme precipitation on consecutive days (EPCD). We further disentangle the relative contributions of variations in precipitation intensity and temporal correlation of extreme precipitation to understand the processes that drive the changes in EPCD. Observations and climate model simulations show that the frequency of EPCD is increasing in most land regions, in particular, in North America, Europe, and the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. These increases are primarily a consequence of increasing precipitation intensity, but changes in the temporal correlation of extreme precipitation regionally amplify or reduce the effects of intensity changes. Changes are larger in simulations with a stronger warming signal, suggesting that further increases in EPCD are expected for the future under continued climate warming.We acknowledge support from the National Key R&D Program of China (2019YFC0409101), Science and Technology Development Plan of Jilin Province (20190201291JC), the Joint Fund of National Natural Science Foundation of China (U19A2023), the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (2412020FZ002), and 2236 Co-Funded Brain Circulation Scheme2 (CoCirculation2) of TÜBİTAK (121C054). M.G.D. acknowledges support by the Horizon 2020 EUCP project under Grant Agreement 776613 and by the Spanish Ministry for the Economy, Industry and Competitiveness Ramón y Cajal 2017 Grant Reference RYC-2017-22964.Peer Reviewed"Article signat per 28 autors/es: Haibo Du, Markus G. Donat, Shengwei Zong, Lisa V. Alexander, Rodrigo Manzanas, Andries Kruger, Gwangyong Choi, Jim Salinger, Hong S. He, Mai-He Li, Fumiaki Fujibe, Banzragch Nandintsetseg, Shafiqur Rehman, Farhat Abbas, Matilde Rusticucci, Arvind Srivastava, Panmao Zhai, Tanya Lippmann, Ibouraïma Yabi, Michael C. Stambaugh, Shengzhong Wang, Altangerel Batbold, Priscilla Teles de Oliveira, Muhammad Adrees, Wei Hou, Claudio Moises Santos e Silva, Paulo Sergio Lucio, and Zhengfang Wu "American Meteorological Society20222022-04-0120222022-04-28journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501VoRhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2117/366505https://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0140.1reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPCinstname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)InglésengEuropean Commission http://doi.org/10.13039/100010661 Horizon 2020 Framework Programme 776613 European Climate Prediction systemopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/3665052026-05-27T15:37:01Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Extreme precipitation on consecutive days occurs more often in a warming climate
title Extreme precipitation on consecutive days occurs more often in a warming climate
spellingShingle Extreme precipitation on consecutive days occurs more often in a warming climate
Du, Haibo
Precipitation forecasting
Climate science
Climate prediction
Extreme events
Precipitation
Climate change
Climate records
Canvis climàtics
Simulació per ordinador
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia
title_short Extreme precipitation on consecutive days occurs more often in a warming climate
title_full Extreme precipitation on consecutive days occurs more often in a warming climate
title_fullStr Extreme precipitation on consecutive days occurs more often in a warming climate
title_full_unstemmed Extreme precipitation on consecutive days occurs more often in a warming climate
title_sort Extreme precipitation on consecutive days occurs more often in a warming climate
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Du, Haibo
Donat, Markus|||0000-0002-0608-7288
Zong, Shengwei
Alexander, Lisa V.
Manzanas, Rodrigo
author Du, Haibo
author_facet Du, Haibo
Donat, Markus|||0000-0002-0608-7288
Zong, Shengwei
Alexander, Lisa V.
Manzanas, Rodrigo
author_role author
author2 Donat, Markus|||0000-0002-0608-7288
Zong, Shengwei
Alexander, Lisa V.
Manzanas, Rodrigo
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Precipitation forecasting
Climate science
Climate prediction
Extreme events
Precipitation
Climate change
Climate records

Canvis climàtics
Simulació per ordinador
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia
topic Precipitation forecasting
Climate science
Climate prediction
Extreme events
Precipitation
Climate change
Climate records
Canvis climàtics
Simulació per ordinador
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia
description Extreme precipitation occurring on consecutive days may substantially increase the risk of related impacts, but changes in such events have not been studied at a global scale. Here we use a unique global dataset based on in situ observations and multimodel historical and future simulations to analyze the changes in the frequency of extreme precipitation on consecutive days (EPCD). We further disentangle the relative contributions of variations in precipitation intensity and temporal correlation of extreme precipitation to understand the processes that drive the changes in EPCD. Observations and climate model simulations show that the frequency of EPCD is increasing in most land regions, in particular, in North America, Europe, and the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. These increases are primarily a consequence of increasing precipitation intensity, but changes in the temporal correlation of extreme precipitation regionally amplify or reduce the effects of intensity changes. Changes are larger in simulations with a stronger warming signal, suggesting that further increases in EPCD are expected for the future under continued climate warming.
publishDate 2022
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2022
2022-04-01
2022
2022-04-28
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
VoR
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2117/366505
https://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0140.1
url https://hdl.handle.net/2117/366505
https://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0140.1
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv European Commission http://doi.org/10.13039/100010661 Horizon 2020 Framework Programme 776613 European Climate Prediction system
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv American Meteorological Society
publisher.none.fl_str_mv American Meteorological Society
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
instname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
instname_str Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
reponame_str UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
collection UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,301603

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