Global warming drives a threefold increase in persistence and 1 °C rise in intensity of marine heatwaves

Marine heatwaves are extreme climatic events consisting of persistent periods of warm ocean waters that have profound impacts on marine life. These episodes are becoming more intense, longer, and more frequent in response to anthropogenic global warming. Here, we provide a comprehensive and quantita...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autores: Marcos, Marta, Amores, Ángel, Agulles, Miguel, Robson, Jon, Feng, Xiangbo
Formato: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2025
País:España
Recursos:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
Repositorio:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
OAI Identifier:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/395733
Acesso em linha:http://hdl.handle.net/10261/395733
https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/105003446410
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:Marine heatwaves
Attribution
Climate change
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spelling Global warming drives a threefold increase in persistence and 1 °C rise in intensity of marine heatwavesMarcos, MartaAmores, ÁngelAgulles, MiguelRobson, JonFeng, XiangboMarine heatwavesAttributionClimate changeMarine heatwaves are extreme climatic events consisting of persistent periods of warm ocean waters that have profound impacts on marine life. These episodes are becoming more intense, longer, and more frequent in response to anthropogenic global warming. Here, we provide a comprehensive and quantitative assessment on the role of global warming on marine heatwaves. To do so, we construct a counterfactual version of observed global sea surface temperatures since 1940, corresponding to a stationary climate without the effect of long-term increasing global temperatures, and use it to calculate the contribution of global air temperature rise on the intensity and persistence of marine heatwaves. We determine that global warming is responsible for nearly half of these extreme events and that, on a global average, it has led to a three-fold increase in the number of days per year that the oceans experience extreme surface heat conditions. We also show that global warming is responsible for an increase of 1 °C in the maximum intensity of the events. Our findings highlight the detrimental role that human-induced global warming plays on marine heatwaves. This study supports the need for mitigation and adaptation strategies to address these threats to marine ecosystems.This research was funded by Disentangling the drivers of European coastal sea-level extremes project, grant number CNS2022-135532, funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033, and by “European Union NextGenerationEU/PRTR.” It was also partially funded by Decadal predictability of coastal extreme sea levels under climate change project (reference PID2021-124085OB-I00 MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033/FEDER,UE). J.R. was funded by National Environmental Research Council via the Climate Change in the Arctic and North Atlantic region and impacts on the UK (NE/W004984/1) and Wider impacts of subpolar North Atlantic decadal variability on the ocean and atmosphere (NE/T013516/1) projects.Peer reviewedNational Academy of Sciences (U.S.)European CommissionMinisterio de Ciencia e Innovación (España)Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España)Natural Environment Research Council (UK)Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72]202520252025info:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501Publisher's versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10261/395733https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/105003446410reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSICinstname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)Inglés#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE##PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI//CNS2022-135532info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2021-2023/PID2021-124085OB-I00Marcos, Marta; Amores, Ángel; Agulles, Miguel; Robson, Jon; Feng, Xiangbo; 2024; SST for Marine Heat Waves in ERA5 and Counterfactual Climate (1940-2023) [Dataset]; Zenodo; Version 1; https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10522831https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2413505122Síinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:digital.csic.es:10261/3957332026-05-22T06:33:51Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Global warming drives a threefold increase in persistence and 1 °C rise in intensity of marine heatwaves
title Global warming drives a threefold increase in persistence and 1 °C rise in intensity of marine heatwaves
spellingShingle Global warming drives a threefold increase in persistence and 1 °C rise in intensity of marine heatwaves
Marcos, Marta
Marine heatwaves
Attribution
Climate change
title_short Global warming drives a threefold increase in persistence and 1 °C rise in intensity of marine heatwaves
title_full Global warming drives a threefold increase in persistence and 1 °C rise in intensity of marine heatwaves
title_fullStr Global warming drives a threefold increase in persistence and 1 °C rise in intensity of marine heatwaves
title_full_unstemmed Global warming drives a threefold increase in persistence and 1 °C rise in intensity of marine heatwaves
title_sort Global warming drives a threefold increase in persistence and 1 °C rise in intensity of marine heatwaves
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Marcos, Marta
Amores, Ángel
Agulles, Miguel
Robson, Jon
Feng, Xiangbo
author Marcos, Marta
author_facet Marcos, Marta
Amores, Ángel
Agulles, Miguel
Robson, Jon
Feng, Xiangbo
author_role author
author2 Amores, Ángel
Agulles, Miguel
Robson, Jon
Feng, Xiangbo
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv European Commission
Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España)
Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España)
Natural Environment Research Council (UK)
Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72]
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Marine heatwaves
Attribution
Climate change
topic Marine heatwaves
Attribution
Climate change
description Marine heatwaves are extreme climatic events consisting of persistent periods of warm ocean waters that have profound impacts on marine life. These episodes are becoming more intense, longer, and more frequent in response to anthropogenic global warming. Here, we provide a comprehensive and quantitative assessment on the role of global warming on marine heatwaves. To do so, we construct a counterfactual version of observed global sea surface temperatures since 1940, corresponding to a stationary climate without the effect of long-term increasing global temperatures, and use it to calculate the contribution of global air temperature rise on the intensity and persistence of marine heatwaves. We determine that global warming is responsible for nearly half of these extreme events and that, on a global average, it has led to a three-fold increase in the number of days per year that the oceans experience extreme surface heat conditions. We also show that global warming is responsible for an increase of 1 °C in the maximum intensity of the events. Our findings highlight the detrimental role that human-induced global warming plays on marine heatwaves. This study supports the need for mitigation and adaptation strategies to address these threats to marine ecosystems.
publishDate 2025
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2025
2025
2025
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
Publisher's version
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10261/395733
https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/105003446410
url http://hdl.handle.net/10261/395733
https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/105003446410
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv #PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#
#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI//CNS2022-135532
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2021-2023/PID2021-124085OB-I00
Marcos, Marta; Amores, Ángel; Agulles, Miguel; Robson, Jon; Feng, Xiangbo; 2024; SST for Marine Heat Waves in ERA5 and Counterfactual Climate (1940-2023) [Dataset]; Zenodo; Version 1; https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10522831
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2413505122
Sí
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv National Academy of Sciences (U.S.)
publisher.none.fl_str_mv National Academy of Sciences (U.S.)
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
instname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
instname_str Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
reponame_str DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
collection DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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