The COVID-19 alcohol paradox: British household purchases during 2020 compared with 2015-2019

British supermarket-panel data suggest no increases in overall sales and purchases of alcohol following COVID-19 lockdowns, yet survey and mortality data suggest otherwise. This paper attempts to unravel the paradox. Based on purchase data of 79,417 British households from Kantar Worldpanel, we unde...

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Autores: Anderson, Peter, O'Donnell, Amy, Jane Llopis, Eva, Kaner, Eileen
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2022
País:España
Institución:Universitat Ramon Llull (URL)
Repositorio:DAU Arxiu Digital de la Universitat Ramon Llull
OAI Identifier:oai:dnet:dau_________::477837dde0a9b47fa5542386bf5ec7b7
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14342/6136
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261609
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:COVID-19
Alcohol consumption
United Kingdom
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spelling The COVID-19 alcohol paradox: British household purchases during 2020 compared with 2015-2019Anderson, PeterO'Donnell, AmyJane Llopis, EvaKaner, EileenCOVID-19Alcohol consumptionUnited KingdomBritish supermarket-panel data suggest no increases in overall sales and purchases of alcohol following COVID-19 lockdowns, yet survey and mortality data suggest otherwise. This paper attempts to unravel the paradox. Based on purchase data of 79,417 British households from Kantar Worldpanel, we undertake controlled interrupted time series analysis of the impact of COVID-19 confinement introduced on 23rd March 2020, and variably applied during 2020, compared to purchases during 2015 to 2019 as controls. We also undertook Poisson regression analyses to estimate if changes in purchases differed by household socio-demographic and economic factors. Excess off-trade household alcohol purchases (expressed as grams of ethanol) following the introduction of confinement, were 29.2% higher (95% CI = 25.8% to 32.5%) for the post-confinement months of 2020, being larger until mid-July 2020 (37.5%, 95%CI = 33.9 to 41.26%) when pubs re-opened with restrictions, and smaller (24.6%, 95%CI = 21.6 to 27.7) thereafter. During the time of complete pub closures, and fully adjusting for no on-trade purchases, household purchases of alcohol did not change when compared with the same time period during 2015–2019 (coefficient = -0.9%, 95%CI = -5.6 to 3.8). Excess purchases from 23rd March to 31st December 2020 varied by region of Great Britain, being higher in the north of England, and lower in Scotland and Wales. Excess purchases were greater in the most deprived households, compared with the least deprived households. Excess purchases increased substantially as the amount of alcohol normally purchased by a household increased, with the top one fifth of households that normally bought the most alcohol increasing their purchases more than 17 times than the bottom one fifth of households that bought the least alcohol. That the heaviest buyers of alcohol increased their purchases the most, with some independent impact of socio-economic disadvantage, might explain why reported alcohol problems and recent alcohol-related death rates might have increased. A conclusion of this is that alcohol policy to reduce high consumption of alcohol, and the availability of help and treatment to reduce alcohol consumption become more important during extraordinary times, such as COVID lockdowns.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionPublic Library of Science (PLoS)Universitat Ramon Llull. Esade202620262022info:eu-repo/semantics/article13 p.application/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14342/6136https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261609reponame:DAU Arxiu Digital de la Universitat Ramon Llullinstname:Universitat Ramon Llull (URL)InglésPLoS ONE, Vol. 17(1)© L'autor/aAttribution 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:dnet:dau_________::477837dde0a9b47fa5542386bf5ec7b72026-06-21T06:40:37Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv The COVID-19 alcohol paradox: British household purchases during 2020 compared with 2015-2019
title The COVID-19 alcohol paradox: British household purchases during 2020 compared with 2015-2019
spellingShingle The COVID-19 alcohol paradox: British household purchases during 2020 compared with 2015-2019
Anderson, Peter
COVID-19
Alcohol consumption
United Kingdom
title_short The COVID-19 alcohol paradox: British household purchases during 2020 compared with 2015-2019
title_full The COVID-19 alcohol paradox: British household purchases during 2020 compared with 2015-2019
title_fullStr The COVID-19 alcohol paradox: British household purchases during 2020 compared with 2015-2019
title_full_unstemmed The COVID-19 alcohol paradox: British household purchases during 2020 compared with 2015-2019
title_sort The COVID-19 alcohol paradox: British household purchases during 2020 compared with 2015-2019
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Anderson, Peter
O'Donnell, Amy
Jane Llopis, Eva
Kaner, Eileen
author Anderson, Peter
author_facet Anderson, Peter
O'Donnell, Amy
Jane Llopis, Eva
Kaner, Eileen
author_role author
author2 O'Donnell, Amy
Jane Llopis, Eva
Kaner, Eileen
author2_role author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Universitat Ramon Llull. Esade
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv COVID-19
Alcohol consumption
United Kingdom
topic COVID-19
Alcohol consumption
United Kingdom
description British supermarket-panel data suggest no increases in overall sales and purchases of alcohol following COVID-19 lockdowns, yet survey and mortality data suggest otherwise. This paper attempts to unravel the paradox. Based on purchase data of 79,417 British households from Kantar Worldpanel, we undertake controlled interrupted time series analysis of the impact of COVID-19 confinement introduced on 23rd March 2020, and variably applied during 2020, compared to purchases during 2015 to 2019 as controls. We also undertook Poisson regression analyses to estimate if changes in purchases differed by household socio-demographic and economic factors. Excess off-trade household alcohol purchases (expressed as grams of ethanol) following the introduction of confinement, were 29.2% higher (95% CI = 25.8% to 32.5%) for the post-confinement months of 2020, being larger until mid-July 2020 (37.5%, 95%CI = 33.9 to 41.26%) when pubs re-opened with restrictions, and smaller (24.6%, 95%CI = 21.6 to 27.7) thereafter. During the time of complete pub closures, and fully adjusting for no on-trade purchases, household purchases of alcohol did not change when compared with the same time period during 2015–2019 (coefficient = -0.9%, 95%CI = -5.6 to 3.8). Excess purchases from 23rd March to 31st December 2020 varied by region of Great Britain, being higher in the north of England, and lower in Scotland and Wales. Excess purchases were greater in the most deprived households, compared with the least deprived households. Excess purchases increased substantially as the amount of alcohol normally purchased by a household increased, with the top one fifth of households that normally bought the most alcohol increasing their purchases more than 17 times than the bottom one fifth of households that bought the least alcohol. That the heaviest buyers of alcohol increased their purchases the most, with some independent impact of socio-economic disadvantage, might explain why reported alcohol problems and recent alcohol-related death rates might have increased. A conclusion of this is that alcohol policy to reduce high consumption of alcohol, and the availability of help and treatment to reduce alcohol consumption become more important during extraordinary times, such as COVID lockdowns.
publishDate 2022
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2022
2026
2026
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14342/6136
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261609
url http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14342/6136
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261609
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv PLoS ONE, Vol. 17(1)
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv © L'autor/a
Attribution 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv © L'autor/a
Attribution 4.0 International
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv 13 p.
application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Public Library of Science (PLoS)
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Public Library of Science (PLoS)
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:DAU Arxiu Digital de la Universitat Ramon Llull
instname:Universitat Ramon Llull (URL)
instname_str Universitat Ramon Llull (URL)
reponame_str DAU Arxiu Digital de la Universitat Ramon Llull
collection DAU Arxiu Digital de la Universitat Ramon Llull
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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