La rentabilidad de los bancos comerciales y el ambiente macroeconómico : el caso peruano en el período 1982-2014
This research explores on what degree the macroeconomic climate influenced the commercial banks profitability in an emerging economy, on the basis commercial banks and the peruvian economy quartely data, over a long period (1982-2014 ). Also investigates if any other factors such as banks regulation...
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| Tipo de recurso: | tesis doctoral |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2016 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC) |
| Repositorio: | UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC |
| Idioma: | español |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/96389 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/2117/96389 https://dx.doi.org/10.5821/dissertation-2117-96389 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Economia i organització d'empreses Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Cooperació per al desenvolupament::Projectes de cooperació |
| Sumario: | This research explores on what degree the macroeconomic climate influenced the commercial banks profitability in an emerging economy, on the basis commercial banks and the peruvian economy quartely data, over a long period (1982-2014 ). Also investigates if any other factors such as banks regulation; bank nanagement lndicators-such as the non performing loans and bank leverage ratios -also have and effect on the banks profitability. This work also seeks determine whether the paradigm Structure-Conduct-Performance hypothesis (SCP) applies in the peruvian case. In this work , we used as overall framework, a graella of analytical tools that combines scanning tools (PEST) and the exploration of possible determinants of Commercial Bank Profitability based on the most recent literature; where technological and social factors are assumed exogenous. Under this perspective, we use a linear semilogarithmic model, tested thorugh a succession of regressions for the aggregate of Commercial Banks and groups of banks to banks individual as well as for a dynamic panel an Arellano- Bover (2011) version- sampling all Commercial Banks along the full period analyzed. Profitability was meas ured using three alternative variables: two indicators of financial profitability of extensive use in the literature (the ROE an ROA ratios) and the economic profitability indicator (The EVA differential). Aligned with the initial objetives of this work, we raised the following hypothesis: (1) The Peruvian commercial banks profitability depens on the evolution of its macroeconomic variables; (2) Profitability depens also on regulation, non performing loans and leverage ratios (as proxies of internal management of each bank); as well as de degree of market concentration (SCP); (3) The model is not parametrically stable; and (4) The model parameters vary according commercial of banks grouping. Under this lines it was found - for different samples, definitions of profitability an bank aggregates and groups - that The commercial banks profitability significantly depended on macroeconomic variables. Other significant result implies that the banks profitabilíty is also explained by the regulatory environment, the non-performing loans and leverage ratios, and- barely-on the index market concentratíon. In comparison with other research based on South American Empírical Evidence, it is found that structure-conduct performance hypothesis recieved a poor empirical support, but these results consistently improved when was used an economic profitability index (EVA). lt is also found that the model is not parametrically stable in time, as these parameters were dissimilar by type of bank grouping (according to its size, the nationality of shareholder and his degree of resilience to the environment) and in the case of banks individually. Main findings discovered that macroeconomic variables as well as other internal or regulatory influences may have a determining role explaning profitability of commercial banks in emerging environments, given the connection between the bank profitability cycles and economic and development patterns, develops valuable lessons for banking management, scanning external business profiles, design rules for regulators agents and criteria for decision making for economic policy makers, especially, in the monetary and fiscal arena |
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