Evidence of groundwater vulnerability to climate variability and economic growth in coastal Kenya

Climate change and future abstraction regimes will influence the availability of groundwater resources. To alleviate any potential negative effects on aquifer systems and dependent industrial and human uses, it is important to develop long-term water management plans. This study evaluates the effect...

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Autores: Ferrer Ramos, Nuria|||0000-0002-8405-2777, Folch Sancho, Albert|||0000-0002-8490-1038, Fernández García, Daniel|||0000-0002-4667-3003, Lane, Mike, Thomas, Mike, Gathenya, John Mwangi, Wara, Calvince, Thomson, Patrick, Custodio Gimena, Emilio|||0000-0003-4122-8098, Hope, Rob
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2020
País:España
Institución:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
Repositorio:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/346604
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2117/346604
https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124920
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Groundwater--Kenya
Recharge
Future scenarios
Modelling
Groundwater
Water management
Aigües subterrànies -- Aspectes ambientals
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Geologia::Hidrologia subterrània
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spelling Evidence of groundwater vulnerability to climate variability and economic growth in coastal KenyaFerrer Ramos, Nuria|||0000-0002-8405-2777Folch Sancho, Albert|||0000-0002-8490-1038Fernández García, Daniel|||0000-0002-4667-3003Lane, MikeThomas, MikeGathenya, John MwangiWara, CalvinceThomson, PatrickCustodio Gimena, Emilio|||0000-0003-4122-8098Hope, RobGroundwater--KenyaRechargeFuture scenariosModellingGroundwaterWater managementAigües subterrànies -- Aspectes ambientalsÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Geologia::Hidrologia subterràniaClimate change and future abstraction regimes will influence the availability of groundwater resources. To alleviate any potential negative effects on aquifer systems and dependent industrial and human uses, it is important to develop long-term water management plans. This study evaluates the effect of climate change and future increased groundwater demand from a coastal aquifer located in Kwale County in southern Kenya. A previously calibrated numerical groundwater flow model has been used as an assessment tool to study how future climate (precipitation and temperature variation) and groundwater abstraction changes will affect the aquifer system. The groundwater flow model was built to simulate the period 2010 to 2017, and eight future model scenarios were developed that cover six hypothetical future years. Future groundwater abstraction has been based on current allocations and future estimates made by Kenya’s Water Resources Authority. Future rainfall scenarios have been constructed based on a long historical data series (from 1959 to 2017) and the Standard Precipitation Index. The main results show that future abstraction increases due to economic growth exerts a minimum impact compared with expected climate variability. Recharge depends on intense rain events with important implications for both dry periods and for an average rainfall year. A succession of extended dry seasons may affect all water users. However, the groundwater level decline in the local shallow aquifer can reach five meters, with important consequences for local community water supplies. The most significant groundwater decline in drought periods is observed in the area surrounding the pumping wellfields in the deep aquifers, where the effects of drought and significant abstraction are multiplied. However, the effect of increased abstraction on the shallow aquifer system is limited. Despite groundwater level decline observed during prolonged dry periods, a dry period followed by a humid period leads to the relatively swift recovery of the groundwater system.The authors gratefully acknowledge the collaboration and key data shared by Base Titanium Ltd., and the support of Kenya's Water Resources Authority, the Kwale Country Government, Kwale International Sugar Company Ltd., and Rural Focus Ltd. This research was funded by the UK Government via NERC, ESRC and DFID as part of the Gro for GooD project (UPGro Consortium Grant: NE/M008894/1).Peer ReviewedElsevier20202020-07-0120212021-06-03journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501AMhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_ab4af688f83e57aainfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2117/346604https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124920reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPCinstname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)Inglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internationalhttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/3466042026-05-27T15:37:01Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Evidence of groundwater vulnerability to climate variability and economic growth in coastal Kenya
title Evidence of groundwater vulnerability to climate variability and economic growth in coastal Kenya
spellingShingle Evidence of groundwater vulnerability to climate variability and economic growth in coastal Kenya
Ferrer Ramos, Nuria|||0000-0002-8405-2777
Groundwater--Kenya
Recharge
Future scenarios
Modelling
Groundwater
Water management
Aigües subterrànies -- Aspectes ambientals
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Geologia::Hidrologia subterrània
title_short Evidence of groundwater vulnerability to climate variability and economic growth in coastal Kenya
title_full Evidence of groundwater vulnerability to climate variability and economic growth in coastal Kenya
title_fullStr Evidence of groundwater vulnerability to climate variability and economic growth in coastal Kenya
title_full_unstemmed Evidence of groundwater vulnerability to climate variability and economic growth in coastal Kenya
title_sort Evidence of groundwater vulnerability to climate variability and economic growth in coastal Kenya
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Ferrer Ramos, Nuria|||0000-0002-8405-2777
Folch Sancho, Albert|||0000-0002-8490-1038
Fernández García, Daniel|||0000-0002-4667-3003
Lane, Mike
Thomas, Mike
Gathenya, John Mwangi
Wara, Calvince
Thomson, Patrick
Custodio Gimena, Emilio|||0000-0003-4122-8098
Hope, Rob
author Ferrer Ramos, Nuria|||0000-0002-8405-2777
author_facet Ferrer Ramos, Nuria|||0000-0002-8405-2777
Folch Sancho, Albert|||0000-0002-8490-1038
Fernández García, Daniel|||0000-0002-4667-3003
Lane, Mike
Thomas, Mike
Gathenya, John Mwangi
Wara, Calvince
Thomson, Patrick
Custodio Gimena, Emilio|||0000-0003-4122-8098
Hope, Rob
author_role author
author2 Folch Sancho, Albert|||0000-0002-8490-1038
Fernández García, Daniel|||0000-0002-4667-3003
Lane, Mike
Thomas, Mike
Gathenya, John Mwangi
Wara, Calvince
Thomson, Patrick
Custodio Gimena, Emilio|||0000-0003-4122-8098
Hope, Rob
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Groundwater--Kenya
Recharge
Future scenarios
Modelling
Groundwater
Water management
Aigües subterrànies -- Aspectes ambientals
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Geologia::Hidrologia subterrània
topic Groundwater--Kenya
Recharge
Future scenarios
Modelling
Groundwater
Water management
Aigües subterrànies -- Aspectes ambientals
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Geologia::Hidrologia subterrània
description Climate change and future abstraction regimes will influence the availability of groundwater resources. To alleviate any potential negative effects on aquifer systems and dependent industrial and human uses, it is important to develop long-term water management plans. This study evaluates the effect of climate change and future increased groundwater demand from a coastal aquifer located in Kwale County in southern Kenya. A previously calibrated numerical groundwater flow model has been used as an assessment tool to study how future climate (precipitation and temperature variation) and groundwater abstraction changes will affect the aquifer system. The groundwater flow model was built to simulate the period 2010 to 2017, and eight future model scenarios were developed that cover six hypothetical future years. Future groundwater abstraction has been based on current allocations and future estimates made by Kenya’s Water Resources Authority. Future rainfall scenarios have been constructed based on a long historical data series (from 1959 to 2017) and the Standard Precipitation Index. The main results show that future abstraction increases due to economic growth exerts a minimum impact compared with expected climate variability. Recharge depends on intense rain events with important implications for both dry periods and for an average rainfall year. A succession of extended dry seasons may affect all water users. However, the groundwater level decline in the local shallow aquifer can reach five meters, with important consequences for local community water supplies. The most significant groundwater decline in drought periods is observed in the area surrounding the pumping wellfields in the deep aquifers, where the effects of drought and significant abstraction are multiplied. However, the effect of increased abstraction on the shallow aquifer system is limited. Despite groundwater level decline observed during prolonged dry periods, a dry period followed by a humid period leads to the relatively swift recovery of the groundwater system.
publishDate 2020
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2020
2020-07-01
2021
2021-06-03
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
AM
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_ab4af688f83e57aa
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2117/346604
https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124920
url https://hdl.handle.net/2117/346604
https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124920
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
instname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
instname_str Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
reponame_str UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
collection UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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