Assessment of new solar radiation nowcasting methods based on sky-camera and satellite imagery Assessment of new solar radiation nowcasting methods based on sky-camera and satellite imagery
This work proposes and evaluates methods for extending the forecasting horizon of all-sky imager (ASI)-based solar radiation nowcasts and estimating the uncertainty of these predictions. In addition, we evaluated procedures for improving the temporal resolution and latency of satellite-imagery-deriv...
| Autores: | , , , , , , , |
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Estado: | Versión aceptada para publicación |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2021 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Universidad de Jaén |
| Repositorio: | RUJA. Repositorio Institucional de la Producción Científica de la Universidad de Jaén |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:ruja.ujaen.es:10953/6681 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.116838 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261921003354 https://hdl.handle.net/10953/6681 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Solar energy Solar irradiance nowcasting Short-term solar irradiance forecasting All-sky imagers (ASI) MSG satellite images |
| Sumario: | This work proposes and evaluates methods for extending the forecasting horizon of all-sky imager (ASI)-based solar radiation nowcasts and estimating the uncertainty of these predictions. In addition, we evaluated procedures for improving the temporal resolution and latency of satellite-imagery-derived solar nowcasts. Based on these contributions, we assessed the reliability of ASIs and satellite-derived solar radiation nowcasts, with 1-min time-resolution and up-to-90-min ahead. The study was conducted in a location in Southern Spain using a set of cloudy days, specifically selected as representative of the most challenging conditions regarding solar radiation nowcasting. The results reveal that the use of ASI-based models provide low benefits compared to the use of satellite-based models for point solar radiation nowcasting. Given the frequency of occurrence of the different sky types in the study area, the results suggest that the use of a simple smart persistence algorithm, in combination with a low-resolution satellite nowcasting model could be an adequate choice, avoiding the challenges associated with the use of ASIs. |
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