Mortality risk assessment in Spain and Italy, insights of the HOPE COVID‑19 registry

Núñez‑Gil, Iván J.; Fernández‑Pérez, Cristina; Estrada, Vicente; Becerra‑Muñoz, Víctor M.; El‑Battrawy, Ibrahim; Uribarri, Aitor; Fernández‑Rozas, Inmaculada; Feltes, Gisela; Viana‑Llamas, María C.; Trabattoni, Daniela; López‑País, Javier; Pepe, Martino; Romero, Rodolfo; Castro‑Mejía, Alex F.; Cerrato, Enrico; Capel Astrua, Thamar; D’Ascenzo, Fabrizio; Fabregat Andrés, Óscar; Moreu, José; Guerra, Federico; Signes‑Costa, Jaime; Marín, Francisco; Buosenso, Danilo; Bardají, Alfredo; Raposeiras‑Roubín, Sergio; Elola, Javier; Molino, Ángel; Gómez‑Doblas, Juan J.; Abumayyaleh, Mohammad; Aparisi, Álvaro; Molina, María; Guerri, Asunción; Arroyo‑Espliguero, Ramón; Assanelli, Emilio; Mapelli, Massimo; García‑Acuña, José M.; Brindicci, Gaetano; Manzone, Edoardo; Ortega‑Armas, María E.; Bianco, Matteo; Trung, Chinh Pham; Núñez, María José; Castellanos‑Lluch, Carmen; García‑Vázquez, Elisa; Cabello‑Clotet, Noemí; Jamhour‑Chelh, Karim; Tellez, María J.; Fernández‑Ortiz, Antonio; Macaya, Carlos

Mortality risk assessment in Spain and Italy, insights of the HOPE COVID‑19 registry

Recently the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak has been declared a pandemic. Despite its aggressive extension and significant morbidity and mortality, risk factors are poorly characterized outside China. We designed a registry, HOPE COVID-19 (NCT04334291), assessing data of 1021 patients disch...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores:	Núñez‑Gil, Iván J., Fernández‑Pérez, Cristina, Estrada, Vicente, Becerra‑Muñoz, Víctor M., El‑Battrawy, Ibrahim, Uribarri, Aitor, Fernández‑Rozas, Inmaculada, Feltes, Gisela, Viana‑Llamas, María C., Trabattoni, Daniela, López‑País, Javier, Pepe, Martino, Romero, Rodolfo, Castro‑Mejía, Alex F., Cerrato, Enrico, Capel Astrua, Thamar, D’Ascenzo, Fabrizio, Fabregat Andrés, Óscar, Moreu, José, Guerra, Federico, Signes‑Costa, Jaime, Marín, Francisco, Buosenso, Danilo, Bardají, Alfredo, Raposeiras‑Roubín, Sergio, Elola, Javier, Molino, Ángel, Gómez‑Doblas, Juan J., Abumayyaleh, Mohammad, Aparisi, Álvaro, Molina, María, Guerri, Asunción, Arroyo‑Espliguero, Ramón, Assanelli, Emilio, Mapelli, Massimo, García‑Acuña, José M., Brindicci, Gaetano, Manzone, Edoardo, Ortega‑Armas, María E., Bianco, Matteo, Trung, Chinh Pham, Núñez, María José, Castellanos‑Lluch, Carmen, García‑Vázquez, Elisa, Cabello‑Clotet, Noemí, Jamhour‑Chelh, Karim, Tellez, María J., Fernández‑Ortiz, Antonio, Macaya, Carlos
Tipo de recurso:	artículo
Fecha de publicación:	2021
País:	España
Institución:	Universidad Católica de Valencia San Vicente Mártir
Repositorio:	RIUCV. Repositorio de la Universidad Católica de Valencia San Vicente Mártir
Idioma:	inglés
OAI Identifier:	oai:riucv.ucv.es:20.500.12466/6964
Acceso en línea:	https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12466/6964
Access Level:	acceso abierto
Palabra clave:	COVID-19 Mortality Score Registry Prognosis 32 Ciencias Médicas

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spelling	Mortality risk assessment in Spain and Italy, insights of the HOPE COVID‑19 registryNúñez‑Gil, Iván J.Fernández‑Pérez, CristinaEstrada, VicenteBecerra‑Muñoz, Víctor M.El‑Battrawy, IbrahimUribarri, AitorFernández‑Rozas, InmaculadaFeltes, GiselaViana‑Llamas, María C.Trabattoni, DanielaLópez‑País, JavierPepe, MartinoRomero, RodolfoCastro‑Mejía, Alex F.Cerrato, EnricoCapel Astrua, ThamarD’Ascenzo, FabrizioFabregat Andrés, ÓscarMoreu, JoséGuerra, FedericoSignes‑Costa, JaimeMarín, FranciscoBuosenso, DaniloBardají, AlfredoRaposeiras‑Roubín, SergioElola, JavierMolino, ÁngelGómez‑Doblas, Juan J.Abumayyaleh, MohammadAparisi, ÁlvaroMolina, MaríaGuerri, AsunciónArroyo‑Espliguero, RamónAssanelli, EmilioMapelli, MassimoGarcía‑Acuña, José M.Brindicci, GaetanoManzone, EdoardoOrtega‑Armas, María E.Bianco, MatteoTrung, Chinh PhamNúñez, María JoséCastellanos‑Lluch, CarmenGarcía‑Vázquez, ElisaCabello‑Clotet, NoemíJamhour‑Chelh, KarimTellez, María J.Fernández‑Ortiz, AntonioMacaya, CarlosCOVID-19MortalityScoreRegistryPrognosis32 Ciencias MédicasRecently the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak has been declared a pandemic. Despite its aggressive extension and significant morbidity and mortality, risk factors are poorly characterized outside China. We designed a registry, HOPE COVID-19 (NCT04334291), assessing data of 1021 patients discharged (dead or alive) after COVID-19, from 23 hospitals in 4 countries, between 8 February and 1 April. The primary end-point was all-cause mortality aiming to produce a mortality risk score calculator. The median age was 68 years (IQR 52–79), and 59.5% were male. Most frequent comorbidities were hypertension (46.8%) and dyslipidemia (35.8%). A relevant heart or lung disease were depicted in 20%. And renal, neurological, or oncological disease, respectively, were detected in nearly 10%. Most common symptoms were fever, cough, and dyspnea at admission. 311 patients died and 710 were discharged alive. In the death-multivariate analysis, raised as most relevant: age, hypertension, obesity, renal insufficiency, any immunosuppressive disease, 02 saturation < 92% and an elevated C reactive protein (AUC = 0.87; Hosmer–Lemeshow test, p > 0.999; bootstrap-optimist: 0.0018). We provide a simple clinical score to estimate probability of death, dividing patients in four grades (I–IV) of increasing probability. Hydroxychloroquine (79.2%) and antivirals (67.6%) were the specific drugs most commonly used. After a propensity score adjustment, the results suggested a slight improvement in mortality rates (adjusted-OR hydroxychloroquine 0.88; 95% CI 0.81–0.91, p = 0.005; adjusted-OR antiviral 0.94; 95% CI 0.87–1.01; p = 0.115). COVID-19 produces important mortality, mostly in patients with comorbidities with respiratory symptoms. Hydroxychloroquine could be associated with survival benefit, but this data need to be confirmed with further trials. Trial Registration: NCT04334291/EUPAS34399.20252025-11-1120212021-01-0120212021-01-01journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501VoRhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12466/6964reponame:RIUCV. Repositorio de la Universidad Católica de Valencia San Vicente Mártirinstname:Universidad Católica de Valencia San Vicente MártirInglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:riucv.ucv.es:20.500.12466/69642026-06-19T08:32:07Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv	Mortality risk assessment in Spain and Italy, insights of the HOPE COVID‑19 registry
title	Mortality risk assessment in Spain and Italy, insights of the HOPE COVID‑19 registry
spellingShingle	Mortality risk assessment in Spain and Italy, insights of the HOPE COVID‑19 registry Núñez‑Gil, Iván J. COVID-19 Mortality Score Registry Prognosis 32 Ciencias Médicas
title_short	Mortality risk assessment in Spain and Italy, insights of the HOPE COVID‑19 registry
title_full	Mortality risk assessment in Spain and Italy, insights of the HOPE COVID‑19 registry
title_fullStr	Mortality risk assessment in Spain and Italy, insights of the HOPE COVID‑19 registry
title_full_unstemmed	Mortality risk assessment in Spain and Italy, insights of the HOPE COVID‑19 registry
title_sort	Mortality risk assessment in Spain and Italy, insights of the HOPE COVID‑19 registry
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv	Núñez‑Gil, Iván J. Fernández‑Pérez, Cristina Estrada, Vicente Becerra‑Muñoz, Víctor M. El‑Battrawy, Ibrahim Uribarri, Aitor Fernández‑Rozas, Inmaculada Feltes, Gisela Viana‑Llamas, María C. Trabattoni, Daniela López‑País, Javier Pepe, Martino Romero, Rodolfo Castro‑Mejía, Alex F. Cerrato, Enrico Capel Astrua, Thamar D’Ascenzo, Fabrizio Fabregat Andrés, Óscar Moreu, José Guerra, Federico Signes‑Costa, Jaime Marín, Francisco Buosenso, Danilo Bardají, Alfredo Raposeiras‑Roubín, Sergio Elola, Javier Molino, Ángel Gómez‑Doblas, Juan J. Abumayyaleh, Mohammad Aparisi, Álvaro Molina, María Guerri, Asunción Arroyo‑Espliguero, Ramón Assanelli, Emilio Mapelli, Massimo García‑Acuña, José M. Brindicci, Gaetano Manzone, Edoardo Ortega‑Armas, María E. Bianco, Matteo Trung, Chinh Pham Núñez, María José Castellanos‑Lluch, Carmen García‑Vázquez, Elisa Cabello‑Clotet, Noemí Jamhour‑Chelh, Karim Tellez, María J. Fernández‑Ortiz, Antonio Macaya, Carlos
author	Núñez‑Gil, Iván J.
author_facet	Núñez‑Gil, Iván J. Fernández‑Pérez, Cristina Estrada, Vicente Becerra‑Muñoz, Víctor M. El‑Battrawy, Ibrahim Uribarri, Aitor Fernández‑Rozas, Inmaculada Feltes, Gisela Viana‑Llamas, María C. Trabattoni, Daniela López‑País, Javier Pepe, Martino Romero, Rodolfo Castro‑Mejía, Alex F. Cerrato, Enrico Capel Astrua, Thamar D’Ascenzo, Fabrizio Fabregat Andrés, Óscar Moreu, José Guerra, Federico Signes‑Costa, Jaime Marín, Francisco Buosenso, Danilo Bardají, Alfredo Raposeiras‑Roubín, Sergio Elola, Javier Molino, Ángel Gómez‑Doblas, Juan J. Abumayyaleh, Mohammad Aparisi, Álvaro Molina, María Guerri, Asunción Arroyo‑Espliguero, Ramón Assanelli, Emilio Mapelli, Massimo García‑Acuña, José M. Brindicci, Gaetano Manzone, Edoardo Ortega‑Armas, María E. Bianco, Matteo Trung, Chinh Pham Núñez, María José Castellanos‑Lluch, Carmen García‑Vázquez, Elisa Cabello‑Clotet, Noemí Jamhour‑Chelh, Karim Tellez, María J. Fernández‑Ortiz, Antonio Macaya, Carlos
author_role	author
author2	Fernández‑Pérez, Cristina Estrada, Vicente Becerra‑Muñoz, Víctor M. El‑Battrawy, Ibrahim Uribarri, Aitor Fernández‑Rozas, Inmaculada Feltes, Gisela Viana‑Llamas, María C. Trabattoni, Daniela López‑País, Javier Pepe, Martino Romero, Rodolfo Castro‑Mejía, Alex F. Cerrato, Enrico Capel Astrua, Thamar D’Ascenzo, Fabrizio Fabregat Andrés, Óscar Moreu, José Guerra, Federico Signes‑Costa, Jaime Marín, Francisco Buosenso, Danilo Bardají, Alfredo Raposeiras‑Roubín, Sergio Elola, Javier Molino, Ángel Gómez‑Doblas, Juan J. Abumayyaleh, Mohammad Aparisi, Álvaro Molina, María Guerri, Asunción Arroyo‑Espliguero, Ramón Assanelli, Emilio Mapelli, Massimo García‑Acuña, José M. Brindicci, Gaetano Manzone, Edoardo Ortega‑Armas, María E. Bianco, Matteo Trung, Chinh Pham Núñez, María José Castellanos‑Lluch, Carmen García‑Vázquez, Elisa Cabello‑Clotet, Noemí Jamhour‑Chelh, Karim Tellez, María J. Fernández‑Ortiz, Antonio Macaya, Carlos
author2_role	author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv	COVID-19 Mortality Score Registry Prognosis 32 Ciencias Médicas
topic	COVID-19 Mortality Score Registry Prognosis 32 Ciencias Médicas
description	Recently the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak has been declared a pandemic. Despite its aggressive extension and significant morbidity and mortality, risk factors are poorly characterized outside China. We designed a registry, HOPE COVID-19 (NCT04334291), assessing data of 1021 patients discharged (dead or alive) after COVID-19, from 23 hospitals in 4 countries, between 8 February and 1 April. The primary end-point was all-cause mortality aiming to produce a mortality risk score calculator. The median age was 68 years (IQR 52–79), and 59.5% were male. Most frequent comorbidities were hypertension (46.8%) and dyslipidemia (35.8%). A relevant heart or lung disease were depicted in 20%. And renal, neurological, or oncological disease, respectively, were detected in nearly 10%. Most common symptoms were fever, cough, and dyspnea at admission. 311 patients died and 710 were discharged alive. In the death-multivariate analysis, raised as most relevant: age, hypertension, obesity, renal insufficiency, any immunosuppressive disease, 02 saturation < 92% and an elevated C reactive protein (AUC = 0.87; Hosmer–Lemeshow test, p > 0.999; bootstrap-optimist: 0.0018). We provide a simple clinical score to estimate probability of death, dividing patients in four grades (I–IV) of increasing probability. Hydroxychloroquine (79.2%) and antivirals (67.6%) were the specific drugs most commonly used. After a propensity score adjustment, the results suggested a slight improvement in mortality rates (adjusted-OR hydroxychloroquine 0.88; 95% CI 0.81–0.91, p = 0.005; adjusted-OR antiviral 0.94; 95% CI 0.87–1.01; p = 0.115). COVID-19 produces important mortality, mostly in patients with comorbidities with respiratory symptoms. Hydroxychloroquine could be associated with survival benefit, but this data need to be confirmed with further trials. Trial Registration: NCT04334291/EUPAS34399.
publishDate	2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv	2021 2021-01-01 2021 2021-01-01 2025 2025-11-11
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv	journal article http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 VoR http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv	info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format	article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv	https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12466/6964
url	https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12466/6964
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv	Inglés eng
language_invalid_str_mv	Inglés
language	eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv	open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv	info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv	open access http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
eu_rights_str_mv	openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv	application/pdf
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv	reponame:RIUCV. Repositorio de la Universidad Católica de Valencia San Vicente Mártir instname:Universidad Católica de Valencia San Vicente Mártir
instname_str	Universidad Católica de Valencia San Vicente Mártir
reponame_str	RIUCV. Repositorio de la Universidad Católica de Valencia San Vicente Mártir
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Mortality risk assessment in Spain and Italy, insights of the HOPE COVID‑19 registry

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