New artificial neural network prediction method for electrical consumption forecasting based on building end-uses

Due to the current high energy prices it is essential to find ways to take advantage of new energy resources and enable consumers to better understand their load curve. This understanding will help to improve customer flexibility and their ability to respond to price or other signals from the electr...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Escrivá-Escrivá, Guillermo|||0000-0002-3202-4571, Álvarez, Carlos|||0000-0002-8238-1606, Roldán-Blay, Carlos|||0000-0001-9459-0563, Alcázar-Ortega, Manuel|||0000-0001-5384-3931
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2011
País:España
Institución:Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV)
Repositorio:RiuNet. Repositorio Institucional de la Universitat Politécnica de Valéncia
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:riunet.upv.es:10251/45980
Acceso en línea:https://riunet.upv.es/handle/10251/45980
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Artificial neural networks
Building end-uses
Building energy consumption
Forecast method
Active energy
Artificial Neural Network
Commercial customers
Customer flexibility
Demand response programs
Electrical consumption
Electricity market
End-uses
Fundamental features
High energy prices
In-buildings
Load curves
Short term prediction
Total power consumption
Training data sets
Customer satisfaction
Electric load forecasting
Energy resources
Energy utilization
Forecasting
Sales
Neural networks
INGENIERIA ELECTRICA
Descripción
Sumario:Due to the current high energy prices it is essential to find ways to take advantage of new energy resources and enable consumers to better understand their load curve. This understanding will help to improve customer flexibility and their ability to respond to price or other signals from the electricity market. In this scenario, one of the most important steps is to carry out an accurate calculation of the expected consumption curve, i.e. the baseline. Subsequently, with a proper baseline, customers can participate in demand response programs and verify performed actions. This paper presents an artificial neural network (ANN) method for short-term prediction of total power consumption in buildings with several independent processes. This problem has been widely discussed in recent literature but a new point of view is proposed. The method is based on two fundamental features: total consumption forecast based on independent processes of the considered load or end-uses; and an adequate selection of the training data set in order to simplify the ANN architecture. Validation of the method has been performed with the prediction of the whole consumption expressed as 96 active energy quarter-hourly values of the Universitat Politcnica de Valncia, a commercial customer consuming 11,500 kW. © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.