Modelling the dynamics of Pinus sylvestris forests after a die-off event under climate change scenarios

In recent decades, die-off events in Pinus sylvestris populations have increased. The causes of these phenomena, which are usually related to local and regional extreme hot droughts, have been extensively investigated from a physiological viewpoint. However, the consequences of die-off process in te...

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Autores: Margalef Marrasé, Jordi|||0000-0003-4369-9918, Molowny Horas, Roberto|||0000-0003-2626-6379, Jaime, Luciana|||0000-0002-2452-6790, Lloret, Francisco|||0000-0002-9836-4069
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2023
País:España
Institución:Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
Repositorio:Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UAB
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:ddd.uab.cat:306631
Acceso en línea:https://ddd.uab.cat/record/306631
https://dx.doi.org/urn:doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159063
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:SDG 13 - Climate Action
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spelling Modelling the dynamics of Pinus sylvestris forests after a die-off event under climate change scenariosPinus sylvestris resilience after a die-off eventMargalef Marrasé, Jordi|||0000-0003-4369-9918Molowny Horas, Roberto|||0000-0003-2626-6379Jaime, Luciana|||0000-0002-2452-6790Lloret, Francisco|||0000-0002-9836-4069SDG 13 - Climate ActionIn recent decades, die-off events in Pinus sylvestris populations have increased. The causes of these phenomena, which are usually related to local and regional extreme hot droughts, have been extensively investigated from a physiological viewpoint. However, the consequences of die-off process in terms of demography and vegetation dynamics have been less thoroughly addressed. Here, we projected P. sylvestris plot dynamics after a die-off event, under climate change scenarios, considering also their early demographic stages (i.e., seedlings, saplings and ingrowth from the sapling to adult class), to assess the resilience of P. sylvestris populations after such events. We used Integral Projection Models (IPMs) to project future plot structure under current climate, and under RCP4.5 and RCP8.0 climate scenarios, using climatic suitability - extracted from Species Distribution Models - as a covariable in the estimations of vital rates over time. Field data feeding IPMs were obtained from two successive surveys, at the end of the die-off event (2013) and four years later (2017), undertaken on populations situated across the P. sylvestris range of distribution in Catalonia (NE Spain). Plots affected by die-off experienced a loss of large trees, which causes that basal area, tree diameter and tree density will remain lower for decades relative to unaffected plots. After the event, this situation is partially counterbalanced in affected plots by a greater increase in basal area and seedling recruitment into tree stage, thus promoting resilience. However, resilience is delayed under the climate-change scenarios with warmer and drier conditions involving additional physiological stress, due to a reduced abundance of seedlings and a smaller plot basal area. The study shows lagged effect of drought-induced die-off events on forest structure, also revealing stabilizing mechanisms, such as recruitment and tree growth release, which enhance resilience. However, these mechanisms would be jeopardized by oncoming regional warming. 22023-01-0120232023-01-01Articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501AMhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_ab4af688f83e57aainfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://ddd.uab.cat/record/306631https://dx.doi.org/urn:doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159063reponame:Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UABinstname:Universitat Autònoma de BarcelonaInglésengMinisterio de Educación, Cultura y Deporte https://doi.org/10.13039/501100003176 FPU15/04593Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad https://doi.org/10.13039/501100003329 CGL2015-67419-RAgencia Estatal de Investigación https://doi.org/10.13039/501100011033 PID2020-115264RB-I00Agència de Gestió d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca https://doi.org/10.13039/501100003030 2017/SGR-1001open accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Aquest document està subjecte a una llicència d'ús Creative Commons. Es permet la reproducció total o parcial, la distribució, i la comunicació pública de l'obra, sempre que no sigui amb finalitats comercials, i sempre que es reconegui l'autoria de l'obra original. No es permet la creació d'obres derivades.https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:ddd.uab.cat:3066312026-06-06T12:50:31Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Modelling the dynamics of Pinus sylvestris forests after a die-off event under climate change scenarios
Pinus sylvestris resilience after a die-off event
title Modelling the dynamics of Pinus sylvestris forests after a die-off event under climate change scenarios
spellingShingle Modelling the dynamics of Pinus sylvestris forests after a die-off event under climate change scenarios
Margalef Marrasé, Jordi|||0000-0003-4369-9918
SDG 13 - Climate Action
title_short Modelling the dynamics of Pinus sylvestris forests after a die-off event under climate change scenarios
title_full Modelling the dynamics of Pinus sylvestris forests after a die-off event under climate change scenarios
title_fullStr Modelling the dynamics of Pinus sylvestris forests after a die-off event under climate change scenarios
title_full_unstemmed Modelling the dynamics of Pinus sylvestris forests after a die-off event under climate change scenarios
title_sort Modelling the dynamics of Pinus sylvestris forests after a die-off event under climate change scenarios
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Margalef Marrasé, Jordi|||0000-0003-4369-9918
Molowny Horas, Roberto|||0000-0003-2626-6379
Jaime, Luciana|||0000-0002-2452-6790
Lloret, Francisco|||0000-0002-9836-4069
author Margalef Marrasé, Jordi|||0000-0003-4369-9918
author_facet Margalef Marrasé, Jordi|||0000-0003-4369-9918
Molowny Horas, Roberto|||0000-0003-2626-6379
Jaime, Luciana|||0000-0002-2452-6790
Lloret, Francisco|||0000-0002-9836-4069
author_role author
author2 Molowny Horas, Roberto|||0000-0003-2626-6379
Jaime, Luciana|||0000-0002-2452-6790
Lloret, Francisco|||0000-0002-9836-4069
author2_role author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv SDG 13 - Climate Action
topic SDG 13 - Climate Action
description In recent decades, die-off events in Pinus sylvestris populations have increased. The causes of these phenomena, which are usually related to local and regional extreme hot droughts, have been extensively investigated from a physiological viewpoint. However, the consequences of die-off process in terms of demography and vegetation dynamics have been less thoroughly addressed. Here, we projected P. sylvestris plot dynamics after a die-off event, under climate change scenarios, considering also their early demographic stages (i.e., seedlings, saplings and ingrowth from the sapling to adult class), to assess the resilience of P. sylvestris populations after such events. We used Integral Projection Models (IPMs) to project future plot structure under current climate, and under RCP4.5 and RCP8.0 climate scenarios, using climatic suitability - extracted from Species Distribution Models - as a covariable in the estimations of vital rates over time. Field data feeding IPMs were obtained from two successive surveys, at the end of the die-off event (2013) and four years later (2017), undertaken on populations situated across the P. sylvestris range of distribution in Catalonia (NE Spain). Plots affected by die-off experienced a loss of large trees, which causes that basal area, tree diameter and tree density will remain lower for decades relative to unaffected plots. After the event, this situation is partially counterbalanced in affected plots by a greater increase in basal area and seedling recruitment into tree stage, thus promoting resilience. However, resilience is delayed under the climate-change scenarios with warmer and drier conditions involving additional physiological stress, due to a reduced abundance of seedlings and a smaller plot basal area. The study shows lagged effect of drought-induced die-off events on forest structure, also revealing stabilizing mechanisms, such as recruitment and tree growth release, which enhance resilience. However, these mechanisms would be jeopardized by oncoming regional warming.
publishDate 2023
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2
2023-01-01
2023
2023-01-01
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv Article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
AM
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_ab4af688f83e57aa
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://ddd.uab.cat/record/306631
https://dx.doi.org/urn:doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159063
url https://ddd.uab.cat/record/306631
https://dx.doi.org/urn:doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159063
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Ministerio de Educación, Cultura y Deporte https://doi.org/10.13039/501100003176 FPU15/04593
Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad https://doi.org/10.13039/501100003329 CGL2015-67419-R
Agencia Estatal de Investigación https://doi.org/10.13039/501100011033 PID2020-115264RB-I00
Agència de Gestió d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca https://doi.org/10.13039/501100003030 2017/SGR-1001
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UAB
instname:Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
instname_str Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
reponame_str Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UAB
collection Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UAB
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repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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