The Lee-Carter quantile mortality model

The Lee-Carter (LC) stochastic mortality model has been widely used for making future projections of mortality rates. In the framework of the LC model, the response function is non-linear in parameters. Here, we adapt this LC framework to compute conditional quantiles. The LC quantile model can be d...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor: Santolino, Miguel
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión aceptada para publicación
Fecha de publicación:2020
País:España
Institución:Varias* (Consorci de Biblioteques Universitáries de Catalunya, Centre de Serveis Científics i Acadèmics de Catalunya)
Repositorio:Recercat. Dipósit de la Recerca de Catalunya
OAI Identifier:oai:recercat.cat:2445/170244
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2445/170244
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Mortalitat
Programació lineal
Longevitat
Anàlisi de regressió
Mortality
Linear programming
Longevity
Regression analysis
Descripción
Sumario:The Lee-Carter (LC) stochastic mortality model has been widely used for making future projections of mortality rates. In the framework of the LC model, the response function is non-linear in parameters. Here, we adapt this LC framework to compute conditional quantiles. The LC quantile model can be defined as quantile non-linear regression conditioned to age and the calendar year. Two strategies for estimating coefficients based on interior-point methods are described. We show that the LC quantile model provides additional information to that furnished by the traditional LC conditional mean. An application to Spanish mortality data is reported.