Forecasting marine spill risk along the U.S. Pacific coasts

This study analyzes historical trends and forecasts of spill risks in coastal counties along the U.S. Pacific, including Alaska and Hawaii. The method calculates spill impact, which rises with size but diminishes with age and distance from the coast. Over the past two decades, spill risks in Califor...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor: Fernández Macho, Francisco Javier
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2024
País:España
Institución:Universidad del País Vasco
Repositorio:Addi. Archivo Digital para la Docencia y la Investigación
OAI Identifier:oai:addi.ehu.eus:10810/63940
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/10810/63940
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:blue economy
coastal monitoring
coastal vulnerability
marine policy
risk index
oil spill
risk assessment
sustainable growth
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spelling Forecasting marine spill risk along the U.S. Pacific coastsFernández Macho, Francisco Javierblue economycoastal monitoringcoastal vulnerabilitymarine policyrisk indexoil spillrisk assessmentsustainable growthThis study analyzes historical trends and forecasts of spill risks in coastal counties along the U.S. Pacific, including Alaska and Hawaii. The method calculates spill impact, which rises with size but diminishes with age and distance from the coast. Over the past two decades, spill risks in California and Washington have increased significantly. Coastal counties in Puget Sound and San Francisco Bay have seen the highest increases, surpassing 2000 levels by 79 % and 39 %, respectively. Alaska experienced a moderate rise, while Oregon and Hawaii had smaller but noteworthy increases. Ocean currents may reduce risk by 38 % on average. Most counties are expected to experience increasing spill risks, particularly in Southern California and Southwest Washington, which could see nearly a 50 % increase by 2033 compared to present levels. These findings can help coastal zone monitoring and inform policies for protecting coastal regions, regulating marine transportation and reducing spill vulnerability.The author would like to acknowledge research funding received from UPV/EHU Econometrics Research Group (Basque Government grant IT1508-22) and EU Interreg Atlantic Area (EAPA_224/2016 MOSES). This research was conducted while the author was a visiting scholar in the Center for the Blue Economy, Middlebury Institute of International Studies @ Monterey (CA) USA. He also thanks two anonymous reviewers for their comments on an earlier version.Elsevier202420242024info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10810/63940reponame:Addi. Archivo Digital para la Docencia y la Investigacióninstname:Universidad del País VascoIngléshttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0025326X23012614info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccesshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/© 2023 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by- nc-nd/4.0/).Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 Españaoai:addi.ehu.eus:10810/639402026-06-18T09:23:17Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Forecasting marine spill risk along the U.S. Pacific coasts
title Forecasting marine spill risk along the U.S. Pacific coasts
spellingShingle Forecasting marine spill risk along the U.S. Pacific coasts
Fernández Macho, Francisco Javier
blue economy
coastal monitoring
coastal vulnerability
marine policy
risk index
oil spill
risk assessment
sustainable growth
title_short Forecasting marine spill risk along the U.S. Pacific coasts
title_full Forecasting marine spill risk along the U.S. Pacific coasts
title_fullStr Forecasting marine spill risk along the U.S. Pacific coasts
title_full_unstemmed Forecasting marine spill risk along the U.S. Pacific coasts
title_sort Forecasting marine spill risk along the U.S. Pacific coasts
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Fernández Macho, Francisco Javier
author Fernández Macho, Francisco Javier
author_facet Fernández Macho, Francisco Javier
author_role author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv blue economy
coastal monitoring
coastal vulnerability
marine policy
risk index
oil spill
risk assessment
sustainable growth
topic blue economy
coastal monitoring
coastal vulnerability
marine policy
risk index
oil spill
risk assessment
sustainable growth
description This study analyzes historical trends and forecasts of spill risks in coastal counties along the U.S. Pacific, including Alaska and Hawaii. The method calculates spill impact, which rises with size but diminishes with age and distance from the coast. Over the past two decades, spill risks in California and Washington have increased significantly. Coastal counties in Puget Sound and San Francisco Bay have seen the highest increases, surpassing 2000 levels by 79 % and 39 %, respectively. Alaska experienced a moderate rise, while Oregon and Hawaii had smaller but noteworthy increases. Ocean currents may reduce risk by 38 % on average. Most counties are expected to experience increasing spill risks, particularly in Southern California and Southwest Washington, which could see nearly a 50 % increase by 2033 compared to present levels. These findings can help coastal zone monitoring and inform policies for protecting coastal regions, regulating marine transportation and reducing spill vulnerability.
publishDate 2024
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2024
2024
2024
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10810/63940
url http://hdl.handle.net/10810/63940
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0025326X23012614
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Addi. Archivo Digital para la Docencia y la Investigación
instname:Universidad del País Vasco
instname_str Universidad del País Vasco
reponame_str Addi. Archivo Digital para la Docencia y la Investigación
collection Addi. Archivo Digital para la Docencia y la Investigación
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,300724

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