Global correlation of Swarm satellites magnetic field and TEC data with M4+ earthquakes between 2014 and 2024

Between 50 and 80 earthquakes are recorded daily, resulting in over 20,000 yearly seismic events. Currently, no reliable earthquake precursors can provide an early warning. Still, research has inspected anomalies in the Magnetic Field Vector over the Y-axis (MFV-Y) and Total Electron Content (TEC) a...

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Autores: Boudriki Semlali, Badr Eddine|||0000-0003-0671-4808, Molina Ordóñez, Carlos|||0000-0003-0300-4106, Hyuk, Park|||0000-0003-0031-0802, Camps Carmona, Adriano José|||0000-0002-9514-4992
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2025
País:España
Institución:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
Repositorio:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/428687
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2117/428687
https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2025.02.065
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Magnetic field vector
Total electron content
IGRF
IRI models
Earthquake precursors
Big data analytics
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spelling Global correlation of Swarm satellites magnetic field and TEC data with M4+ earthquakes between 2014 and 2024Boudriki Semlali, Badr Eddine|||0000-0003-0671-4808Molina Ordóñez, Carlos|||0000-0003-0300-4106Hyuk, Park|||0000-0003-0031-0802Camps Carmona, Adriano José|||0000-0002-9514-4992Magnetic field vectorTotal electron contentIGRFIRI modelsEarthquake precursorsBig data analyticsBetween 50 and 80 earthquakes are recorded daily, resulting in over 20,000 yearly seismic events. Currently, no reliable earthquake precursors can provide an early warning. Still, research has inspected anomalies in the Magnetic Field Vector over the Y-axis (MFV-Y) and Total Electron Content (TEC) as possible precursors of upcoming seismic activity. This study has employed a large global dataset of MFV-Y and TEC data acquired from Swarm satellites between 2014 and 2024 to analyze ionospheric anomalies in earthquake-affected areas. More than 200,000 earthquakes with magnitudes M4+ and within ± 60° latitude have been studied. The Swarm data were compared with physical models, notably, the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) and the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI), at the exact locations and times to pinpoint anomalies through the Root Mean Square Error Difference (RMSD) in the time series. This research marks the first use of the Confusion Matrix (CM), Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC), and various other Figures of Merit (FoM) to assess and try to improve the performance of the methodologies employed and to find the optimal configuration conditions for serving as proxies for earthquake forecasting. As a result, positive anomalies in MFV-Y and TEC were identified 1 to 7 days before the analyzed earthquakes.Peer Reviewed20252025-03-0120252025-04-30journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501VoRhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/2117/428687https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2025.02.065reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPCinstname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)Inglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/4286872026-05-27T15:37:01Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Global correlation of Swarm satellites magnetic field and TEC data with M4+ earthquakes between 2014 and 2024
title Global correlation of Swarm satellites magnetic field and TEC data with M4+ earthquakes between 2014 and 2024
spellingShingle Global correlation of Swarm satellites magnetic field and TEC data with M4+ earthquakes between 2014 and 2024
Boudriki Semlali, Badr Eddine|||0000-0003-0671-4808
Magnetic field vector
Total electron content
IGRF
IRI models
Earthquake precursors
Big data analytics
title_short Global correlation of Swarm satellites magnetic field and TEC data with M4+ earthquakes between 2014 and 2024
title_full Global correlation of Swarm satellites magnetic field and TEC data with M4+ earthquakes between 2014 and 2024
title_fullStr Global correlation of Swarm satellites magnetic field and TEC data with M4+ earthquakes between 2014 and 2024
title_full_unstemmed Global correlation of Swarm satellites magnetic field and TEC data with M4+ earthquakes between 2014 and 2024
title_sort Global correlation of Swarm satellites magnetic field and TEC data with M4+ earthquakes between 2014 and 2024
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Boudriki Semlali, Badr Eddine|||0000-0003-0671-4808
Molina Ordóñez, Carlos|||0000-0003-0300-4106
Hyuk, Park|||0000-0003-0031-0802
Camps Carmona, Adriano José|||0000-0002-9514-4992
author Boudriki Semlali, Badr Eddine|||0000-0003-0671-4808
author_facet Boudriki Semlali, Badr Eddine|||0000-0003-0671-4808
Molina Ordóñez, Carlos|||0000-0003-0300-4106
Hyuk, Park|||0000-0003-0031-0802
Camps Carmona, Adriano José|||0000-0002-9514-4992
author_role author
author2 Molina Ordóñez, Carlos|||0000-0003-0300-4106
Hyuk, Park|||0000-0003-0031-0802
Camps Carmona, Adriano José|||0000-0002-9514-4992
author2_role author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Magnetic field vector
Total electron content
IGRF
IRI models
Earthquake precursors
Big data analytics
topic Magnetic field vector
Total electron content
IGRF
IRI models
Earthquake precursors
Big data analytics
description Between 50 and 80 earthquakes are recorded daily, resulting in over 20,000 yearly seismic events. Currently, no reliable earthquake precursors can provide an early warning. Still, research has inspected anomalies in the Magnetic Field Vector over the Y-axis (MFV-Y) and Total Electron Content (TEC) as possible precursors of upcoming seismic activity. This study has employed a large global dataset of MFV-Y and TEC data acquired from Swarm satellites between 2014 and 2024 to analyze ionospheric anomalies in earthquake-affected areas. More than 200,000 earthquakes with magnitudes M4+ and within ± 60° latitude have been studied. The Swarm data were compared with physical models, notably, the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) and the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI), at the exact locations and times to pinpoint anomalies through the Root Mean Square Error Difference (RMSD) in the time series. This research marks the first use of the Confusion Matrix (CM), Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC), and various other Figures of Merit (FoM) to assess and try to improve the performance of the methodologies employed and to find the optimal configuration conditions for serving as proxies for earthquake forecasting. As a result, positive anomalies in MFV-Y and TEC were identified 1 to 7 days before the analyzed earthquakes.
publishDate 2025
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2025
2025-03-01
2025
2025-04-30
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
VoR
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/2117/428687
https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2025.02.065
url https://hdl.handle.net/2117/428687
https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2025.02.065
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
instname:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
instname_str Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
reponame_str UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
collection UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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