Estimating the impact of COVID-19 on the Spanish economy with input-output analysis
In this paper we present a forecast of the impact of measures to stem Covid-19 on the Spanish economy at a highly disaggregate level, using input-output techniques. Our estimations cover the period 2020-2021, and we consider two scenarios depending on the possibility of a second wave of massive infe...
| Autores: | , |
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2021 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha |
| Repositorio: | RUIdeRA. Repositorio Institucional de la UCLM |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:ruidera.uclm.es:10578/35812 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://doi.org/10.15304/rge.30.1.7105 https://hdl.handle.net/10578/35812 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | COVID-19 Spanish economy Input-output analysis Sistema económico español Análise input-output |
| Sumario: | In this paper we present a forecast of the impact of measures to stem Covid-19 on the Spanish economy at a highly disaggregate level, using input-output techniques. Our estimations cover the period 2020-2021, and we consider two scenarios depending on the possibility of a second wave of massive infections in the autumn of 2020. In 2020, the lockdown of the population and the shutdown of a large part of the production system for several weeks are a supply-side shock that will be followed by a demand-side shock whose impact is expected to be even larger. In 2021 there will be some recovery, although we believe that it will not be sufficient for offsetting the initial negative shock. al negative shock. Neste artigo presentamos unha previsión do impacto das medidas para frear a COVID-19 na economía española a un alto ni-vel de desagregación sectorial, utilizando metodoloxía input-output. As nosas estimacións refírense ao período 2020-2021, no que consideramos dous escenarios en función da posibilidade dunha segunda vaga de infeccións masivas no outono de 2020. As medidas de confinamento da poboación e a paralización de gran parte do sistema produtivo durante varias semanas de 2020 supuxeron un shock de oferta ao que se unirá un shock de demanda cuxo impacto se espera que sexa aínda maior. En 2021 haberá certa recuperación, aínda que consideramos que non será o suficientemente intensa como para compensar o shock negativo inicial. |
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