Modeling trajectories of routine blood tests as dynamic biomarkers for outcome in spinal cord injury
Routinely collected blood tests can reflect underlying pathophysiological processes. We demonstrate that the dynamics of routinely collected blood tests hold prediction validity in acute Spinal Cord Injury (SCI). Using MIMIC data (n¿=¿2615) for modeling and TRACK-SCI study data (n¿=¿137) for validat...
| Autores: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2025 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC) |
| Repositorio: | UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC |
| Idioma: | inglés |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/451782 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/2117/451782 https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41746-025-01782-0 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Biomarkers Health care Medical research Neurological disorders Neurology Predictive markers Statistics Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Matemàtiques i estadística::Matemàtica aplicada a les ciències |
| Sumario: | Routinely collected blood tests can reflect underlying pathophysiological processes. We demonstrate that the dynamics of routinely collected blood tests hold prediction validity in acute Spinal Cord Injury (SCI). Using MIMIC data (n¿=¿2615) for modeling and TRACK-SCI study data (n¿=¿137) for validation, we identified multiple trajectories for common blood markers. We developed machine learning models for the dynamic prediction of in-hospital mortality, SCI occurrence in spine trauma patients, and SCI severity (motor complete vs. incomplete). The in-hospital mortality model achieved an out-of-train ROC-AUC of 0.79 [0.77–0.81] day one post-injury, improving to 0.89 [0.88–0.89] by day 21. For detecting the presence of SCI after spine trauma, the highest ROC-AUC was 0.71 [0.69–0.72] achieved by day 21. By day seven, the ROC-AUC for SCI severity was 0.81 [0.77–0.85]. Our full models outperformed the severity score SAPS II following seven days of hospitalization. |
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