The impact of demographic change in the balance between formal and informal old-age care in Spain. Results from a mixed microsimulation-agent-based model

Changes in population and family structures are altering the provision of care for dependent older people. In Southern European countries like Spain, such care is still largely provided by family, typically spouses and adult daughters. However, an increasing proportion of women have entered the labo...

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Autores: Spijker, Jeroen|||0000-0002-3957-9553, Devolder, Daniel|||0000-0003-0812-3585, Zueras Castillo, Pilar|||0000-0002-3345-8865
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2021
País:España
Institución:Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
Repositorio:Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UAB
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:ddd.uab.cat:237408
Acceso en línea:https://ddd.uab.cat/record/237408
https://dx.doi.org/urn:doi:10.1017/S0144686X20001026
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Old-age care
Formal care
Informal care
Microsimulation
Agent-based model
Spain
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spelling The impact of demographic change in the balance between formal and informal old-age care in Spain. Results from a mixed microsimulation-agent-based modelSpijker, Jeroen|||0000-0002-3957-9553Devolder, Daniel|||0000-0003-0812-3585Zueras Castillo, Pilar|||0000-0002-3345-8865Old-age careFormal careInformal careMicrosimulationAgent-based modelSpainChanges in population and family structures are altering the provision of care for dependent older people. In Southern European countries like Spain, such care is still largely provided by family, typically spouses and adult daughters. However, an increasing proportion of women have entered the labour force, thereby affecting their availability. To study the demand and supply balance of informal care and to quantify the need for formal care when there is a deficit, we have developed a mixed microsimulation-agent-based model (ABM). Based on nuptiality, fertility and mortality levels of cohorts born at ten-year intervals between 1908 and 1968, the model starts with a microsimulation of the lifecycle of individuals and their close relatives until death. The ABM then determines the amount of time available or needed to care for family members, starting from age 50. Estimates are derived from Spanish survey data on employment, disability and time of care received. Surprisingly, results show that the family care deficit was greater in the older cohorts due to higher mortality and thus a greater impact of widowhood. However, for future elderly persons, we foresee that persistent below-replacement fertility and, paradoxically, the prolongation of the lifespan of couples will increase the demand for formal care as there will be more couples with both members incapacitated but without children to take care of them. 22021-01-0120212021-01-01Articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501AMhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_ab4af688f83e57aainfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://ddd.uab.cat/record/237408https://dx.doi.org/urn:doi:10.1017/S0144686X20001026reponame:Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UABinstname:Universitat Autònoma de BarcelonaInglésengMinisterio de Economía y Competitividad https://doi.org/10.13039/501100003329 RYC-2013-14851Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad https://doi.org/10.13039/501100003329 FJCI-2015-27107Agencia Estatal de Investigación https://doi.org/10.13039/501100011033 CSO2017-89721-Ropen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Aquest material està protegit per drets d'autor i/o drets afins. Podeu utilitzar aquest material en funció del que permet la legislació de drets d'autor i drets afins d'aplicació al vostre cas. Per a d'altres usos heu d'obtenir permís del(s) titular(s) de drets.https://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:ddd.uab.cat:2374082026-06-06T12:50:31Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv The impact of demographic change in the balance between formal and informal old-age care in Spain. Results from a mixed microsimulation-agent-based model
title The impact of demographic change in the balance between formal and informal old-age care in Spain. Results from a mixed microsimulation-agent-based model
spellingShingle The impact of demographic change in the balance between formal and informal old-age care in Spain. Results from a mixed microsimulation-agent-based model
Spijker, Jeroen|||0000-0002-3957-9553
Old-age care
Formal care
Informal care
Microsimulation
Agent-based model
Spain
title_short The impact of demographic change in the balance between formal and informal old-age care in Spain. Results from a mixed microsimulation-agent-based model
title_full The impact of demographic change in the balance between formal and informal old-age care in Spain. Results from a mixed microsimulation-agent-based model
title_fullStr The impact of demographic change in the balance between formal and informal old-age care in Spain. Results from a mixed microsimulation-agent-based model
title_full_unstemmed The impact of demographic change in the balance between formal and informal old-age care in Spain. Results from a mixed microsimulation-agent-based model
title_sort The impact of demographic change in the balance between formal and informal old-age care in Spain. Results from a mixed microsimulation-agent-based model
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Spijker, Jeroen|||0000-0002-3957-9553
Devolder, Daniel|||0000-0003-0812-3585
Zueras Castillo, Pilar|||0000-0002-3345-8865
author Spijker, Jeroen|||0000-0002-3957-9553
author_facet Spijker, Jeroen|||0000-0002-3957-9553
Devolder, Daniel|||0000-0003-0812-3585
Zueras Castillo, Pilar|||0000-0002-3345-8865
author_role author
author2 Devolder, Daniel|||0000-0003-0812-3585
Zueras Castillo, Pilar|||0000-0002-3345-8865
author2_role author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Old-age care
Formal care
Informal care
Microsimulation
Agent-based model
Spain
topic Old-age care
Formal care
Informal care
Microsimulation
Agent-based model
Spain
description Changes in population and family structures are altering the provision of care for dependent older people. In Southern European countries like Spain, such care is still largely provided by family, typically spouses and adult daughters. However, an increasing proportion of women have entered the labour force, thereby affecting their availability. To study the demand and supply balance of informal care and to quantify the need for formal care when there is a deficit, we have developed a mixed microsimulation-agent-based model (ABM). Based on nuptiality, fertility and mortality levels of cohorts born at ten-year intervals between 1908 and 1968, the model starts with a microsimulation of the lifecycle of individuals and their close relatives until death. The ABM then determines the amount of time available or needed to care for family members, starting from age 50. Estimates are derived from Spanish survey data on employment, disability and time of care received. Surprisingly, results show that the family care deficit was greater in the older cohorts due to higher mortality and thus a greater impact of widowhood. However, for future elderly persons, we foresee that persistent below-replacement fertility and, paradoxically, the prolongation of the lifespan of couples will increase the demand for formal care as there will be more couples with both members incapacitated but without children to take care of them.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2
2021-01-01
2021
2021-01-01
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv Article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
AM
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_ab4af688f83e57aa
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://ddd.uab.cat/record/237408
https://dx.doi.org/urn:doi:10.1017/S0144686X20001026
url https://ddd.uab.cat/record/237408
https://dx.doi.org/urn:doi:10.1017/S0144686X20001026
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad https://doi.org/10.13039/501100003329 RYC-2013-14851
Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad https://doi.org/10.13039/501100003329 FJCI-2015-27107
Agencia Estatal de Investigación https://doi.org/10.13039/501100011033 CSO2017-89721-R
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
https://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
https://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UAB
instname:Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
instname_str Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
reponame_str Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UAB
collection Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UAB
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