Upper-Level Mediterranean Oscillation index and seasonal variability of rainfall and temperature

The need for early seasonal forecasts stimulates continuous research in climate teleconnections. The large variability of the Mediterranean climate presents a greater difficulty in predicting climate anomalies. This article reviews teleconnection indices commonly used for the Mediterranean basin and...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Redolat, Dario, Monjo Agut, Robert, Lopez-Bustins, Joan A., Martin-Vide, Javier
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2019
País:España
Institución:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
Repositorio:Docta Complutense
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/12465
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/12465
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:551.58
Climate teleconnections
Mediterranean oscillation index
Climate variability
Pearson correlation
Meteorología (Física)
Estadística matemática (Matemáticas)
1209 Estadística
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oai_identifier_str oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/12465
network_acronym_str ES
network_name_str España
repository_id_str
spelling Upper-Level Mediterranean Oscillation index and seasonal variability of rainfall and temperatureRedolat, DarioMonjo Agut, RobertLopez-Bustins, Joan A.Martin-Vide, Javier551.58Climate teleconnectionsMediterranean oscillation indexClimate variabilityPearson correlationMeteorología (Física)Estadística matemática (Matemáticas)1209 EstadísticaThe need for early seasonal forecasts stimulates continuous research in climate teleconnections. The large variability of the Mediterranean climate presents a greater difficulty in predicting climate anomalies. This article reviews teleconnection indices commonly used for the Mediterranean basin and explores possible extensions of one of them, the Mediterranean Oscillation index (MOi). In particular, the anomalies of the geopotential height field at 500 hPa are analyzed using segmentation of the Mediterranean basin in seven spatial windows: three at eastern and four at western. That is, different versions of an Upper-Level Mediterranean Oscillation index (ULMOi) were calculated, and monthly and annual variability of precipitation and temperature were analyzed for 53 observatories from 1951 to 2015. Best versions were selected according to the Pearson correlation, its related p-value, and two measures of standardized error. The combination of the Balearic Sea and Libya/Egypt windows was the best for precipitation and temperature, respectively. The ULMOi showed the highest predictive ability in combination with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index (AMOi) for the annual temperature throughout the Mediterranean basin. The best model built from the indices presented a final mean error between 15% and 25% in annual precipitation for most of the studied area.SpringerUniversidad Complutense de Madrid20192019-02-0120192019-02-01journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/12465reponame:Docta Complutenseinstname:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)Inglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/124652026-06-02T12:44:21Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Upper-Level Mediterranean Oscillation index and seasonal variability of rainfall and temperature
title Upper-Level Mediterranean Oscillation index and seasonal variability of rainfall and temperature
spellingShingle Upper-Level Mediterranean Oscillation index and seasonal variability of rainfall and temperature
Redolat, Dario
551.58
Climate teleconnections
Mediterranean oscillation index
Climate variability
Pearson correlation
Meteorología (Física)
Estadística matemática (Matemáticas)
1209 Estadística
title_short Upper-Level Mediterranean Oscillation index and seasonal variability of rainfall and temperature
title_full Upper-Level Mediterranean Oscillation index and seasonal variability of rainfall and temperature
title_fullStr Upper-Level Mediterranean Oscillation index and seasonal variability of rainfall and temperature
title_full_unstemmed Upper-Level Mediterranean Oscillation index and seasonal variability of rainfall and temperature
title_sort Upper-Level Mediterranean Oscillation index and seasonal variability of rainfall and temperature
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Redolat, Dario
Monjo Agut, Robert
Lopez-Bustins, Joan A.
Martin-Vide, Javier
author Redolat, Dario
author_facet Redolat, Dario
Monjo Agut, Robert
Lopez-Bustins, Joan A.
Martin-Vide, Javier
author_role author
author2 Monjo Agut, Robert
Lopez-Bustins, Joan A.
Martin-Vide, Javier
author2_role author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Universidad Complutense de Madrid
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv 551.58
Climate teleconnections
Mediterranean oscillation index
Climate variability
Pearson correlation
Meteorología (Física)
Estadística matemática (Matemáticas)
1209 Estadística
topic 551.58
Climate teleconnections
Mediterranean oscillation index
Climate variability
Pearson correlation
Meteorología (Física)
Estadística matemática (Matemáticas)
1209 Estadística
description The need for early seasonal forecasts stimulates continuous research in climate teleconnections. The large variability of the Mediterranean climate presents a greater difficulty in predicting climate anomalies. This article reviews teleconnection indices commonly used for the Mediterranean basin and explores possible extensions of one of them, the Mediterranean Oscillation index (MOi). In particular, the anomalies of the geopotential height field at 500 hPa are analyzed using segmentation of the Mediterranean basin in seven spatial windows: three at eastern and four at western. That is, different versions of an Upper-Level Mediterranean Oscillation index (ULMOi) were calculated, and monthly and annual variability of precipitation and temperature were analyzed for 53 observatories from 1951 to 2015. Best versions were selected according to the Pearson correlation, its related p-value, and two measures of standardized error. The combination of the Balearic Sea and Libya/Egypt windows was the best for precipitation and temperature, respectively. The ULMOi showed the highest predictive ability in combination with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index (AMOi) for the annual temperature throughout the Mediterranean basin. The best model built from the indices presented a final mean error between 15% and 25% in annual precipitation for most of the studied area.
publishDate 2019
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2019
2019-02-01
2019
2019-02-01
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/12465
url https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/12465
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Docta Complutense
instname:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
instname_str Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
reponame_str Docta Complutense
collection Docta Complutense
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15.301603

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