A Bayesian stochastic SIRS model with a vaccination strategy for the analysis of respiratory syncytial virus

Our objective in this paper is to model the dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus in the region of Valencia (Spain) and analyse the effect of vaccination strategies from a health-economic point of view. Compartmental mathematical models based on differential equations are commonly used in epidemio...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Jornet-Sanz, Marc, Corberán-Vallet, Ana, Santonja, Francisco, Villanueva, Rafael
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2017
País:España
Institución:Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC)
Repositorio:UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPC
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:upcommons.upc.edu:2117/112757
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/2117/112757
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Infectious diseases
respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)
discrete-time epidemic model
stochastic compartmental model
Bayesian analysis
intervention strategies
Classificació AMS::62 Statistics::62P Applications
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Matemàtiques i estadística::Estadística matemàtica
Descripción
Sumario:Our objective in this paper is to model the dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus in the region of Valencia (Spain) and analyse the effect of vaccination strategies from a health-economic point of view. Compartmental mathematical models based on differential equations are commonly used in epidemiology to both understand the underlying mechanisms that influence disease transmission and analyse the impact of vaccination programs. However, a recently proposed Bayesian stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible model in discrete-time provided an improved and more natural description of disease dynamics. In this work, we propose an extension of that stochastic model that allows us to simulate and assess the effect of a vaccination strategy that consists on vaccinating a proportion of newborns.