Bayesian Immature Survival Analysis of the Largest Colony of Common Murre (Uria aalge) in the Baltic Sea

In long-lived species, such as seabirds, immature survival is the most important life history parameter after adult survival. The assessment of immature survival has often been difficult due to extended periods in which young birds remain unobservable at sea. This study presents results on survival...

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Autores: Sarzo, B, Armero, C, Conesa, D, Hentati-Sundberg, J, Olsson, O
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2019
País:España
Institución:Fundación para el Fomento de la Investigación Sanitaria y Biomédica de la Comunitat Valenciana (FISABIO)
Repositorio:r-FISABIO. Repositorio Institucional de Producción Científica
OAI Identifier:oai:fisabio.fundanetsuite.com:p13243
Acceso en línea:https://fisabio.portalinvestigacion.com/publicaciones/13243
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Annual survival
Cormack-Jolly-Seber models
first-year survival
juvenile survival
partial detectability
recapture probability
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spelling Bayesian Immature Survival Analysis of the Largest Colony of Common Murre (Uria aalge) in the Baltic SeaSarzo, BArmero, CConesa, DHentati-Sundberg, JOlsson, OAnnual survivalCormack-Jolly-Seber modelsfirst-year survivaljuvenile survivalpartial detectabilityrecapture probabilityIn long-lived species, such as seabirds, immature survival is the most important life history parameter after adult survival. The assessment of immature survival has often been difficult due to extended periods in which young birds remain unobservable at sea. This study presents results on survival of immature Common Murre (Uria aalge) obtained from an extensive mark-recapture study of a large colony at Stora Karlso in the Baltic Sea, Sweden. This colony, in contrast with other colonies, has the unique feature that many 1-year-old birds return to the colony (12%). Between 2006 and 2016, 28,930 chicks were marked at fledging, of which 5,493 individuals were later resighted in the colony. Annual survival and recapture probabilities were estimated using Bayesian Cormack-Jolly-Seber models with four age classes for survival probability, and recapture probability being age and time dependent. Informative prior distributions were used to correct partial observability problems in older age classes (observed at breeding ledges). The estimated survival probability of 1-year-old birds was 0.53 (95% CI = 0.49-0.58), 2-year-old birds was 0.87 (0.79-0.96), 3-year-old birds was 0.96 (0.90-0.99), and 4-to-10-year old bird survival probability was 0.63 (0.61-0.64). Survival estimates for younger age classes were consistent with previous studies. Several biological factors may contribute to the observed decline in survival for older age classes.WATERBIRD SOC2019info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttps://fisabio.portalinvestigacion.com/publicaciones/13243WATERBIRDSISSN: 15244695ISSNe: 19385390reponame:r-FISABIO. Repositorio Institucional de Producción Científicainstname:Fundación para el Fomento de la Investigación Sanitaria y Biomédica de la Comunitat Valenciana (FISABIO)Inglésinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:fisabio.fundanetsuite.com:p132432026-06-11T12:45:17Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Bayesian Immature Survival Analysis of the Largest Colony of Common Murre (Uria aalge) in the Baltic Sea
title Bayesian Immature Survival Analysis of the Largest Colony of Common Murre (Uria aalge) in the Baltic Sea
spellingShingle Bayesian Immature Survival Analysis of the Largest Colony of Common Murre (Uria aalge) in the Baltic Sea
Sarzo, B
Annual survival
Cormack-Jolly-Seber models
first-year survival
juvenile survival
partial detectability
recapture probability
title_short Bayesian Immature Survival Analysis of the Largest Colony of Common Murre (Uria aalge) in the Baltic Sea
title_full Bayesian Immature Survival Analysis of the Largest Colony of Common Murre (Uria aalge) in the Baltic Sea
title_fullStr Bayesian Immature Survival Analysis of the Largest Colony of Common Murre (Uria aalge) in the Baltic Sea
title_full_unstemmed Bayesian Immature Survival Analysis of the Largest Colony of Common Murre (Uria aalge) in the Baltic Sea
title_sort Bayesian Immature Survival Analysis of the Largest Colony of Common Murre (Uria aalge) in the Baltic Sea
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Sarzo, B
Armero, C
Conesa, D
Hentati-Sundberg, J
Olsson, O
author Sarzo, B
author_facet Sarzo, B
Armero, C
Conesa, D
Hentati-Sundberg, J
Olsson, O
author_role author
author2 Armero, C
Conesa, D
Hentati-Sundberg, J
Olsson, O
author2_role author
author
author
author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Annual survival
Cormack-Jolly-Seber models
first-year survival
juvenile survival
partial detectability
recapture probability
topic Annual survival
Cormack-Jolly-Seber models
first-year survival
juvenile survival
partial detectability
recapture probability
description In long-lived species, such as seabirds, immature survival is the most important life history parameter after adult survival. The assessment of immature survival has often been difficult due to extended periods in which young birds remain unobservable at sea. This study presents results on survival of immature Common Murre (Uria aalge) obtained from an extensive mark-recapture study of a large colony at Stora Karlso in the Baltic Sea, Sweden. This colony, in contrast with other colonies, has the unique feature that many 1-year-old birds return to the colony (12%). Between 2006 and 2016, 28,930 chicks were marked at fledging, of which 5,493 individuals were later resighted in the colony. Annual survival and recapture probabilities were estimated using Bayesian Cormack-Jolly-Seber models with four age classes for survival probability, and recapture probability being age and time dependent. Informative prior distributions were used to correct partial observability problems in older age classes (observed at breeding ledges). The estimated survival probability of 1-year-old birds was 0.53 (95% CI = 0.49-0.58), 2-year-old birds was 0.87 (0.79-0.96), 3-year-old birds was 0.96 (0.90-0.99), and 4-to-10-year old bird survival probability was 0.63 (0.61-0.64). Survival estimates for younger age classes were consistent with previous studies. Several biological factors may contribute to the observed decline in survival for older age classes.
publishDate 2019
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2019
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://fisabio.portalinvestigacion.com/publicaciones/13243
url https://fisabio.portalinvestigacion.com/publicaciones/13243
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv WATERBIRD SOC
publisher.none.fl_str_mv WATERBIRD SOC
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv WATERBIRDS
ISSN: 15244695
ISSNe: 19385390
reponame:r-FISABIO. Repositorio Institucional de Producción Científica
instname:Fundación para el Fomento de la Investigación Sanitaria y Biomédica de la Comunitat Valenciana (FISABIO)
instname_str Fundación para el Fomento de la Investigación Sanitaria y Biomédica de la Comunitat Valenciana (FISABIO)
reponame_str r-FISABIO. Repositorio Institucional de Producción Científica
collection r-FISABIO. Repositorio Institucional de Producción Científica
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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