Projecting community trophic structures for the last 120 000 years
Studying past community dynamics can provide valuable insights for anticipating future changes in the world’s biota. However, the existing fossil record is too sparse to enable continuous temporal reconstructions of wholesale community dynamics. In this study, we utilise machine learning to reconstr...
| Autores: | , , |
|---|---|
| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Estado: | Versión publicada |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2024 |
| País: | España |
| Institución: | Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC) |
| Repositorio: | DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:digital.csic.es:10261/388953 |
| Acceso en línea: | http://hdl.handle.net/10261/388953 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Biogeography Food webs Holocene Paleoclimate Paleoecology Pleistocene Trophic interactions |
| id |
ES_073a3b1bfcdb63febf8d6d13ee739ef4 |
|---|---|
| oai_identifier_str |
oai:digital.csic.es:10261/388953 |
| network_acronym_str |
ES |
| network_name_str |
España |
| repository_id_str |
|
| spelling |
Projecting community trophic structures for the last 120 000 yearsGonzález-Trujillo, Juan DavidMendoza, ManuelBastos Araújo, MiguelBiogeographyFood websHolocenePaleoclimatePaleoecologyPleistoceneTrophic interactionsStudying past community dynamics can provide valuable insights for anticipating future changes in the world’s biota. However, the existing fossil record is too sparse to enable continuous temporal reconstructions of wholesale community dynamics. In this study, we utilise machine learning to reconstruct Late Quaternary community structure, leveraging the climate–trophic structure relationship. We followed a four-stage approach: 1) identify and map trophic structure units (TSUs) at the global scale based on the guild richness and composition of terrestrial mammal species weighing over 3 kg; 2) train a random forest classifier to predict the observed distribution of TSUs based on contemporary climatic conditions; 3) hindcast the global distribution of TSUs using climatic conditions as reconstructed over the past 120 000 years; and 4) compare TSU hindcasts against elements of community structure as estimated with the fossil record. Models project significant shifts in the geographical distribution of community trophic structures, with more pronounced changes occurring during the Pleistocene–Holocene transition. These shifts exhibit regional variations, particularly in Eurasia and North America, where the models project reductions in the distribution of less-complex trophic structures over the last 24 000 years. Hindcasts partially identified the alterations in community structure seen in the fossil record, demonstrating a match between the observed and predicted times of change in mammal community structure (between 24 and 8 ka BP). However, projections of trophic guilds diverged from fossil records during the Holocene. While the fossil record indicated a decrease in the number of grazers and carnivores, our models projected an increase in these numbers. Characterising community-wide responses to climatic changes is essential to address key questions about past and future impacts of such changes. Although further research is needed to refine the models, our approach offers a perspective for addressing the complex interactions among climate and trophic structures and model their distributions over time.Agencia Estatal de Investigación, Award: PGC2018-099363-B-I00, ref. 20183M168.Peer reviewedJohn Wiley & SonsAgencia Estatal de Investigación (España)González-Trujillo, Juan David [0000-0001-6870-6278]Bastos Araújo, Miguel [0000-0002-5107-7265]Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72]202520252024info:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501Publisher's versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://hdl.handle.net/10261/388953reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSICinstname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)Inglés#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/ PGC2018-099363-B-I00/https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.06899Síinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:digital.csic.es:10261/3889532026-05-22T06:33:51Z |
| dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Projecting community trophic structures for the last 120 000 years |
| title |
Projecting community trophic structures for the last 120 000 years |
| spellingShingle |
Projecting community trophic structures for the last 120 000 years González-Trujillo, Juan David Biogeography Food webs Holocene Paleoclimate Paleoecology Pleistocene Trophic interactions |
| title_short |
Projecting community trophic structures for the last 120 000 years |
| title_full |
Projecting community trophic structures for the last 120 000 years |
| title_fullStr |
Projecting community trophic structures for the last 120 000 years |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Projecting community trophic structures for the last 120 000 years |
| title_sort |
Projecting community trophic structures for the last 120 000 years |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
González-Trujillo, Juan David Mendoza, Manuel Bastos Araújo, Miguel |
| author |
González-Trujillo, Juan David |
| author_facet |
González-Trujillo, Juan David Mendoza, Manuel Bastos Araújo, Miguel |
| author_role |
author |
| author2 |
Mendoza, Manuel Bastos Araújo, Miguel |
| author2_role |
author author |
| dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv |
Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España) González-Trujillo, Juan David [0000-0001-6870-6278] Bastos Araújo, Miguel [0000-0002-5107-7265] Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72] |
| dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
Biogeography Food webs Holocene Paleoclimate Paleoecology Pleistocene Trophic interactions |
| topic |
Biogeography Food webs Holocene Paleoclimate Paleoecology Pleistocene Trophic interactions |
| description |
Studying past community dynamics can provide valuable insights for anticipating future changes in the world’s biota. However, the existing fossil record is too sparse to enable continuous temporal reconstructions of wholesale community dynamics. In this study, we utilise machine learning to reconstruct Late Quaternary community structure, leveraging the climate–trophic structure relationship. We followed a four-stage approach: 1) identify and map trophic structure units (TSUs) at the global scale based on the guild richness and composition of terrestrial mammal species weighing over 3 kg; 2) train a random forest classifier to predict the observed distribution of TSUs based on contemporary climatic conditions; 3) hindcast the global distribution of TSUs using climatic conditions as reconstructed over the past 120 000 years; and 4) compare TSU hindcasts against elements of community structure as estimated with the fossil record. Models project significant shifts in the geographical distribution of community trophic structures, with more pronounced changes occurring during the Pleistocene–Holocene transition. These shifts exhibit regional variations, particularly in Eurasia and North America, where the models project reductions in the distribution of less-complex trophic structures over the last 24 000 years. Hindcasts partially identified the alterations in community structure seen in the fossil record, demonstrating a match between the observed and predicted times of change in mammal community structure (between 24 and 8 ka BP). However, projections of trophic guilds diverged from fossil records during the Holocene. While the fossil record indicated a decrease in the number of grazers and carnivores, our models projected an increase in these numbers. Characterising community-wide responses to climatic changes is essential to address key questions about past and future impacts of such changes. Although further research is needed to refine the models, our approach offers a perspective for addressing the complex interactions among climate and trophic structures and model their distributions over time. |
| publishDate |
2024 |
| dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2024 2025 2025 |
| dc.type.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 Publisher's version info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
| format |
article |
| status_str |
publishedVersion |
| dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10261/388953 |
| url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10261/388953 |
| dc.language.none.fl_str_mv |
Inglés |
| language_invalid_str_mv |
Inglés |
| dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv |
#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE# info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/ PGC2018-099363-B-I00/ https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.06899 Sí |
| dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| eu_rights_str_mv |
openAccess |
| dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
John Wiley & Sons |
| publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
John Wiley & Sons |
| dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC instname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC) |
| instname_str |
Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC) |
| reponame_str |
DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC |
| collection |
DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC |
| repository.name.fl_str_mv |
|
| repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
|
| _version_ |
1869402969057787904 |
| score |
15,812429 |