A multi-model analysis of the EU's path to net zero

The European Union (EU) recently ratcheted its climate ambition to net-zero emissions by 2050, with a milestone of 55% emissions cuts in 2030. This study carries out a model inter-comparison to assess the EU's path, from “Fit for 55” in 2030 to an intermediate milestone in 2040 and onto net zer...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Boitier, B., Nikas, A., Gambhir, A., Koasidis, K., Elia, A., Al-Dabbas, K., Alibaş, Ş., Campagnolo, L., Chiodi, A., Delpiazzo, E., Doukas, H., Fougeyrollas, A., Gargiulo, M., Le Mouël, P., Neuner, F., Perdana, S., Van de Ven, Dirk-Jan, Vielle, M., Zagamé, P., Mittal, S.
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2023
País:España
Institución:Universidad del País Vasco
Repositorio:Addi. Archivo Digital para la Docencia y la Investigación
OAI Identifier:oai:addi.ehu.eus:10810/66164
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/10810/66164
Access Level:acceso embargado
Palabra clave:climate and energy transition
climate mitigation pathways
Emissions Trading System
European climate policy
European Union
Fit for 55
integrated assessment models
model inter-comparison,modeling
net-zero emissions
Descripción
Sumario:The European Union (EU) recently ratcheted its climate ambition to net-zero emissions by 2050, with a milestone of 55% emissions cuts in 2030. This study carries out a model inter-comparison to assess the EU's path, from “Fit for 55” in 2030 to an intermediate milestone in 2040 and onto net zero in 2050, offering insights at sectoral and member-state levels. Our model results support the bloc's ambition for its Emissions Trading System and Effort Sharing Regulation sectors while pointing to the need for near-complete decarbonization of electricity by 2040, enabled by considerable deployment of renewables (45%–65% in 2030, to 60%–70% in 2040, and to 75%–90% in 2050 in electricity generation) and carbon capture and storage (0.5–2 GtCO2/year by 2050). We also highlight the trade-offs between supply-side and harder-to-abate sectors, assess the ambition of member states for net zero and timing of coal phaseout, and reflect on the economic implications of investment, technical, and policy needs. © 2023 The Author(s)