Can fear of going to jail reduce the number of road fatalities? The Spanish experience

The goal of this article is to evaluate the impact of the drastic Spanish Penal Code reform on the number of road deaths in Spain and the time that the effects might last. This is achieved by means of multivariate unobserved component models set up in a state space framework estimated using maximum...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Castillo Manzano, José I., Castro Nuño, Mercedes, Pedregal Tercero, Diego José
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2011
País:España
Institución:Universidad de Sevilla (US)
Repositorio:idUS. Depósito de Investigación de la Universidad de Sevilla
OAI Identifier:oai:idus.us.es:11441/149196
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/11441/149196
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsr.2011.03.004
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Penal Code Reform
Road Traffic Fatalities
Public Law Enforcement
State Space System
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spelling Can fear of going to jail reduce the number of road fatalities? The Spanish experienceCastillo Manzano, José I.Castro Nuño, MercedesPedregal Tercero, Diego JoséPenal Code ReformRoad Traffic FatalitiesPublic Law EnforcementState Space SystemThe goal of this article is to evaluate the impact of the drastic Spanish Penal Code reform on the number of road deaths in Spain and the time that the effects might last. This is achieved by means of multivariate unobserved component models set up in a state space framework estimated using maximum likelihood. In short, with this reform Spain might be considered to be closing the final gap that kept it apart from other developed countries as far as the road accident rate is concerned. We have found two different types of effects on Spanish road traffic fatalities. Initially, a month before the reform was passed there was a 24.7 percent fall in Spanish road deaths. After the Bill had been passed and for the following thirteen months, the reduction stayed at a constant sixteen percent. This reform has reduced Spanish road fatalities by 534 in all between November 2007 and December 2008 and the effects will foreseeably continue during 2009Elsevier ScienceAnálisis Económico y Economía Política2011info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/11441/149196https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsr.2011.03.004reponame:idUS. Depósito de Investigación de la Universidad de Sevillainstname:Universidad de Sevilla (US)InglésJournal of Safety Research, 42 (3), 223-228.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsr.2011.03.004info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:idus.us.es:11441/1491962026-06-17T12:51:07Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Can fear of going to jail reduce the number of road fatalities? The Spanish experience
title Can fear of going to jail reduce the number of road fatalities? The Spanish experience
spellingShingle Can fear of going to jail reduce the number of road fatalities? The Spanish experience
Castillo Manzano, José I.
Penal Code Reform
Road Traffic Fatalities
Public Law Enforcement
State Space System
title_short Can fear of going to jail reduce the number of road fatalities? The Spanish experience
title_full Can fear of going to jail reduce the number of road fatalities? The Spanish experience
title_fullStr Can fear of going to jail reduce the number of road fatalities? The Spanish experience
title_full_unstemmed Can fear of going to jail reduce the number of road fatalities? The Spanish experience
title_sort Can fear of going to jail reduce the number of road fatalities? The Spanish experience
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Castillo Manzano, José I.
Castro Nuño, Mercedes
Pedregal Tercero, Diego José
author Castillo Manzano, José I.
author_facet Castillo Manzano, José I.
Castro Nuño, Mercedes
Pedregal Tercero, Diego José
author_role author
author2 Castro Nuño, Mercedes
Pedregal Tercero, Diego José
author2_role author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Análisis Económico y Economía Política
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Penal Code Reform
Road Traffic Fatalities
Public Law Enforcement
State Space System
topic Penal Code Reform
Road Traffic Fatalities
Public Law Enforcement
State Space System
description The goal of this article is to evaluate the impact of the drastic Spanish Penal Code reform on the number of road deaths in Spain and the time that the effects might last. This is achieved by means of multivariate unobserved component models set up in a state space framework estimated using maximum likelihood. In short, with this reform Spain might be considered to be closing the final gap that kept it apart from other developed countries as far as the road accident rate is concerned. We have found two different types of effects on Spanish road traffic fatalities. Initially, a month before the reform was passed there was a 24.7 percent fall in Spanish road deaths. After the Bill had been passed and for the following thirteen months, the reduction stayed at a constant sixteen percent. This reform has reduced Spanish road fatalities by 534 in all between November 2007 and December 2008 and the effects will foreseeably continue during 2009
publishDate 2011
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2011
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/11441/149196
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsr.2011.03.004
url https://hdl.handle.net/11441/149196
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsr.2011.03.004
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv Journal of Safety Research, 42 (3), 223-228.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsr.2011.03.004
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier Science
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Elsevier Science
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:idUS. Depósito de Investigación de la Universidad de Sevilla
instname:Universidad de Sevilla (US)
instname_str Universidad de Sevilla (US)
reponame_str idUS. Depósito de Investigación de la Universidad de Sevilla
collection idUS. Depósito de Investigación de la Universidad de Sevilla
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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score 15,300719

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