How credit ratings affect sovereign credit risk: cross-border evidence in Latin American emerging markets

This article builds upon previous literature by providing a better understanding of how contagion changes in bordering sovereign CDS emerging markets resulting from credit rating events. To that end, we follow the novel GVAR methodology using data from six Latin American emerging countries during an...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autores: Ballester Miquel, Laura, González Urteaga, Ana
Formato: artículo
Estado:Versión aceptada para publicación
Fecha de publicación:2016
País:España
Recursos:Universidad Pública de Navarra
Repositorio:Academica-e. Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Pública de Navarra
OAI Identifier:oai:academica-e.unavarra.es:2454/34754
Acesso em linha:https://hdl.handle.net/2454/34754
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palavra-chave:CDS spreads
Credit ratings
Emerging markets
Spillover effects
GVAR
Descrição
Resumo:This article builds upon previous literature by providing a better understanding of how contagion changes in bordering sovereign CDS emerging markets resulting from credit rating events. To that end, we follow the novel GVAR methodology using data from six Latin American emerging countries during an extensive sample period from 2004 to 2014. Our findings show evidence for the existence of significant and asymmetric cross-border effects. In particular, a competition effect is observed before the event occurs, indicating that non-event countries suffer (benefit) from upgrades (downgrades) in Brazil, Mexico and Chile (in Argentina and Brazil). In contrast, an imitation effect is observed after rating upgrades in Chile, to the benefit of bordering non-event countries.