Economic vote instability: Endogeneity or restricted variance? Spanish panel evidence from 2008 and 2011

While the economic vote exists in Western democracies, the question of its stability remains a subject of controversy. This article focuses on two possible factors behind the instability observed: the endogeneity problem and the restricted variance problem. The former concerns the influence of parti...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Fraile Maldonado, Marta, Lewis-Beck, Michael S.
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión enviada para evaluación y publicación
Fecha de publicación:2014
País:España
Institución:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
Repositorio:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
OAI Identifier:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/184535
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/10261/184535
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Economic voting
Spain
Elections
Economic crisis
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spelling Economic vote instability: Endogeneity or restricted variance? Spanish panel evidence from 2008 and 2011Fraile Maldonado, MartaLewis-Beck, Michael S.Economic votingSpainElectionsEconomic crisisWhile the economic vote exists in Western democracies, the question of its stability remains a subject of controversy. This article focuses on two possible factors behind the instability observed: the endogeneity problem and the restricted variance problem. The former concerns the influence of partisan thinking on economic perception, while the latter concerns the influence of economic crisis, when virtually all voters may perceive a bad economy. These problems are examined using panel data from the Spanish national elections of 2008 and 2011. After various causality tests, it is concluded that the economic vote was influential in both contests, but apparently less so in 2011. It is shown in the article that the initial 2011 result misleads because of the statistical artifact presented by the restricted variance problem. Thus, an alternative strategy for exogenising economic perceptions is developed using aggregate economic measures in a pooled cross-sectional design whereby it is demonstrated that the economy mattered greatly under the economic crisis of 2011. This estimation strategy could be applicable to other Western democracies experiencing such economic crisis.Peer ReviewedEuropean Consortium for Political ResearchMinisterio de Ciencia e Innovación (España)Fraile Maldonado, Marta [0000-0002-4123-2874]Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72]2019201920142019info:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501Preprintinfo:eu-repo/semantics/submittedVersionhttp://hdl.handle.net/10261/184535reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSICinstname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)Inglés#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MINECO/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2013-2016/CSO2008‐03819Síinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:digital.csic.es:10261/1845352026-05-22T06:33:51Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Economic vote instability: Endogeneity or restricted variance? Spanish panel evidence from 2008 and 2011
title Economic vote instability: Endogeneity or restricted variance? Spanish panel evidence from 2008 and 2011
spellingShingle Economic vote instability: Endogeneity or restricted variance? Spanish panel evidence from 2008 and 2011
Fraile Maldonado, Marta
Economic voting
Spain
Elections
Economic crisis
title_short Economic vote instability: Endogeneity or restricted variance? Spanish panel evidence from 2008 and 2011
title_full Economic vote instability: Endogeneity or restricted variance? Spanish panel evidence from 2008 and 2011
title_fullStr Economic vote instability: Endogeneity or restricted variance? Spanish panel evidence from 2008 and 2011
title_full_unstemmed Economic vote instability: Endogeneity or restricted variance? Spanish panel evidence from 2008 and 2011
title_sort Economic vote instability: Endogeneity or restricted variance? Spanish panel evidence from 2008 and 2011
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Fraile Maldonado, Marta
Lewis-Beck, Michael S.
author Fraile Maldonado, Marta
author_facet Fraile Maldonado, Marta
Lewis-Beck, Michael S.
author_role author
author2 Lewis-Beck, Michael S.
author2_role author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España)
Fraile Maldonado, Marta [0000-0002-4123-2874]
Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [https://ror.org/02gfc7t72]
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Economic voting
Spain
Elections
Economic crisis
topic Economic voting
Spain
Elections
Economic crisis
description While the economic vote exists in Western democracies, the question of its stability remains a subject of controversy. This article focuses on two possible factors behind the instability observed: the endogeneity problem and the restricted variance problem. The former concerns the influence of partisan thinking on economic perception, while the latter concerns the influence of economic crisis, when virtually all voters may perceive a bad economy. These problems are examined using panel data from the Spanish national elections of 2008 and 2011. After various causality tests, it is concluded that the economic vote was influential in both contests, but apparently less so in 2011. It is shown in the article that the initial 2011 result misleads because of the statistical artifact presented by the restricted variance problem. Thus, an alternative strategy for exogenising economic perceptions is developed using aggregate economic measures in a pooled cross-sectional design whereby it is demonstrated that the economy mattered greatly under the economic crisis of 2011. This estimation strategy could be applicable to other Western democracies experiencing such economic crisis.
publishDate 2014
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2014
2019
2019
2019
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
Preprint
info:eu-repo/semantics/submittedVersion
format article
status_str submittedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10261/184535
url http://hdl.handle.net/10261/184535
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
dc.relation.none.fl_str_mv #PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MINECO/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2013-2016/CSO2008‐03819
Sí
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv European Consortium for Political Research
publisher.none.fl_str_mv European Consortium for Political Research
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
instname:Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
instname_str Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
reponame_str DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
collection DIGITAL.CSIC. Repositorio Institucional del CSIC
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
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