Blocking and its Response to Climate Change

Purpose of Review Atmospheric blocking events represent some of the most high-impact weather patterns in the mid-latitudes, yet they have often been a cause for concern in future climate projections. There has been low confidence in predicted future changes in blocking, despite relatively good agree...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Woollings, Tim, Barriopedro Cepero, David, Methven, John, Seok-Woo, Son, Martius, Olivia, Harvey, Ben, Sillmann, Jana, Lupo, Anthony R., Seneviratne, Sonia
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Fecha de publicación:2018
País:España
Institución:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
Repositorio:Docta Complutense
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/13299
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/13299
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:52
Northern-hemisphere winter
Wave-breaking characteristics
High-lattitude blocks
Arctic sea-ice
Atmospheric blocking
Potential vorticity
Soil-moisture
Part I
Stratospheric variability
Persistent anomalies
Física atmosférica
2501 Ciencias de la Atmósfera
id ES_0037cbf0ca87f04309faab19b90e4490
oai_identifier_str oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/13299
network_acronym_str ES
network_name_str España
repository_id_str
spelling Blocking and its Response to Climate ChangeWoollings, TimBarriopedro Cepero, DavidMethven, JohnSeok-Woo, SonMartius, OliviaHarvey, BenSillmann, JanaLupo, Anthony R.Seneviratne, Sonia52Northern-hemisphere winterWave-breaking characteristicsHigh-lattitude blocksArctic sea-iceAtmospheric blockingPotential vorticitySoil-moisturePart IStratospheric variabilityPersistent anomaliesFísica atmosférica2501 Ciencias de la AtmósferaPurpose of Review Atmospheric blocking events represent some of the most high-impact weather patterns in the mid-latitudes, yet they have often been a cause for concern in future climate projections. There has been low confidence in predicted future changes in blocking, despite relatively good agreement between climate models on a decline in blocking. This is due to the lack of a comprehensive theory of blocking and a pervasive underestimation of blocking occurrence by models. This paper reviews the state of knowledge regarding blocking under climate change, with the aim of providing an overview for those working in related fields. Recent Findings Several avenues have been identified by which blocking can be improved in numerical models, though a fully reliable simulation remains elusive (at least, beyond a few days lead time). Models are therefore starting to provide some useful information on how blocking and its impacts may change in the future, although deeper understanding of the processes at play will be needed to increase confidence in model projections. There are still major uncertainties regarding the processes most important to the onset, maintenance and decay of blocking and advances in our understanding of atmospheric dynamics, for example in the role of diabatic processes, continue to inform the modelling and prediction efforts. Summary The term ‘blocking’ covers a diverse array of synoptic patterns, and hence a bewildering range of indices has been developed to identify events. Results are hence not considered fully trustworthy until they have been found using several different methods. Examples of such robust results are the underestimation of blocking by models, and an overall decline in future occurrence, albeit with a complex regional and seasonal variation. In contrast, hemispheric trends in blocking over the recent historical period are not supported by different methods, and natural variability will likely dominate regional variations over the next few decades.Springer HeidelbergUniversidad Complutense de Madrid20182018-09-0120182018-09-01journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501info:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdfhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/13299reponame:Docta Complutenseinstname:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)Inglésengopen accesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Atribución 3.0 Españahttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessoai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/132992026-06-02T12:44:21Z
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Blocking and its Response to Climate Change
title Blocking and its Response to Climate Change
spellingShingle Blocking and its Response to Climate Change
Woollings, Tim
52
Northern-hemisphere winter
Wave-breaking characteristics
High-lattitude blocks
Arctic sea-ice
Atmospheric blocking
Potential vorticity
Soil-moisture
Part I
Stratospheric variability
Persistent anomalies
Física atmosférica
2501 Ciencias de la Atmósfera
title_short Blocking and its Response to Climate Change
title_full Blocking and its Response to Climate Change
title_fullStr Blocking and its Response to Climate Change
title_full_unstemmed Blocking and its Response to Climate Change
title_sort Blocking and its Response to Climate Change
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Woollings, Tim
Barriopedro Cepero, David
Methven, John
Seok-Woo, Son
Martius, Olivia
Harvey, Ben
Sillmann, Jana
Lupo, Anthony R.
Seneviratne, Sonia
author Woollings, Tim
author_facet Woollings, Tim
Barriopedro Cepero, David
Methven, John
Seok-Woo, Son
Martius, Olivia
Harvey, Ben
Sillmann, Jana
Lupo, Anthony R.
Seneviratne, Sonia
author_role author
author2 Barriopedro Cepero, David
Methven, John
Seok-Woo, Son
Martius, Olivia
Harvey, Ben
Sillmann, Jana
Lupo, Anthony R.
Seneviratne, Sonia
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
author
author
author
dc.contributor.none.fl_str_mv Universidad Complutense de Madrid
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv 52
Northern-hemisphere winter
Wave-breaking characteristics
High-lattitude blocks
Arctic sea-ice
Atmospheric blocking
Potential vorticity
Soil-moisture
Part I
Stratospheric variability
Persistent anomalies
Física atmosférica
2501 Ciencias de la Atmósfera
topic 52
Northern-hemisphere winter
Wave-breaking characteristics
High-lattitude blocks
Arctic sea-ice
Atmospheric blocking
Potential vorticity
Soil-moisture
Part I
Stratospheric variability
Persistent anomalies
Física atmosférica
2501 Ciencias de la Atmósfera
description Purpose of Review Atmospheric blocking events represent some of the most high-impact weather patterns in the mid-latitudes, yet they have often been a cause for concern in future climate projections. There has been low confidence in predicted future changes in blocking, despite relatively good agreement between climate models on a decline in blocking. This is due to the lack of a comprehensive theory of blocking and a pervasive underestimation of blocking occurrence by models. This paper reviews the state of knowledge regarding blocking under climate change, with the aim of providing an overview for those working in related fields. Recent Findings Several avenues have been identified by which blocking can be improved in numerical models, though a fully reliable simulation remains elusive (at least, beyond a few days lead time). Models are therefore starting to provide some useful information on how blocking and its impacts may change in the future, although deeper understanding of the processes at play will be needed to increase confidence in model projections. There are still major uncertainties regarding the processes most important to the onset, maintenance and decay of blocking and advances in our understanding of atmospheric dynamics, for example in the role of diabatic processes, continue to inform the modelling and prediction efforts. Summary The term ‘blocking’ covers a diverse array of synoptic patterns, and hence a bewildering range of indices has been developed to identify events. Results are hence not considered fully trustworthy until they have been found using several different methods. Examples of such robust results are the underestimation of blocking by models, and an overall decline in future occurrence, albeit with a complex regional and seasonal variation. In contrast, hemispheric trends in blocking over the recent historical period are not supported by different methods, and natural variability will likely dominate regional variations over the next few decades.
publishDate 2018
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2018
2018-09-01
2018
2018-09-01
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv journal article
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
dc.type.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/13299
url https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/13299
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv Inglés
eng
language_invalid_str_mv Inglés
language eng
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Atribución 3.0 España
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/
dc.rights.openaire.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
rights_invalid_str_mv open access
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Atribución 3.0 España
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer Heidelberg
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Springer Heidelberg
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Docta Complutense
instname:Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
instname_str Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM)
reponame_str Docta Complutense
collection Docta Complutense
repository.name.fl_str_mv
repository.mail.fl_str_mv
_version_ 1869402480390963200
score 15,301603

Similares en LA Referencia