Evaluation of Markov Chain Based Drought Forecasts in an Andean Regulated River Basin Using the Skill Scores RPS and GMSS

On behalf of the decision-makers of Andean regulated river basins a drought index was developed to predict the occurrence and extent of drought events. Two stochastic models, the Markov Chain First Order (MCFO) and the Markov Chain Second Order (MCSO) model, predicting the frequency of monthly droug...

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Authors: Aviles Anazco, Alex Manuel, Celleri Alvear, Rolando Enrique
Format: article
Status:Published version
Publication Date:2015
Country:Ecuador
Institution:Universidad de Cuenca
Repository:Repositorio Universidad de Cuenca
OAI Identifier:oai:dspace.ucuenca.edu.ec:123456789/28988
Online Access:https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84925504832&doi=10.1007%2fs11269-015-0921-2&partnerID=40&md5=24d7091906c1963a984992460bd964e7
http://dspace.ucuenca.edu.ec/handle/123456789/28988
Access Level:Open access
Keyword:Andean Basins
Drought Index
Forecast Evaluation
Markov Chains
Probabilistic Forecast
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spelling Evaluation of Markov Chain Based Drought Forecasts in an Andean Regulated River Basin Using the Skill Scores RPS and GMSSAviles Anazco, Alex ManuelCelleri Alvear, Rolando EnriqueAndean BasinsDrought IndexForecast EvaluationMarkov ChainsProbabilistic ForecastOn behalf of the decision-makers of Andean regulated river basins a drought index was developed to predict the occurrence and extent of drought events. Two stochastic models, the Markov Chain First Order (MCFO) and the Markov Chain Second Order (MCSO) model, predicting the frequency of monthly droughts were applied and the performance checked using two skill scores, respectively the ranked probability score (RPS) and the Gandin-Murphy skill score (GMSS). Data of the Chulco River basin (3200–4300 m.a.s.l.), situated in the Ecuadorian southern Andes, were employed to test the performance of both models. Results indicate that events with greater drought severity were more accurately predicted. The study also revealed the importance of verifying the quality of the forecasts and to have an assessment of the likely performance of the forecasting models before adopting any model and accepting the resulting information for decision-making.KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBLISHERS2018-01-11T16:47:04Z2018-01-11T16:47:04Z2015-01-01info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleapplication/pdf9204741https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84925504832&doi=10.1007%2fs11269-015-0921-2&partnerID=40&md5=24d7091906c1963a984992460bd964e7http://dspace.ucuenca.edu.ec/handle/123456789/2898810.1007/s11269-015-0921-2Water Resources Managementreponame:Repositorio Universidad de Cuencainstname:Universidad de Cuencainstacron:UCUENCAen_USinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess2020-08-01T01:14:29Zoai:dspace.ucuenca.edu.ec:123456789/28988Institucionalhttp://dspace.ucuenca.edu.ec/Universidad públicahttps://www.ucuenca.edu.ec/http://dspace.ucuenca.edu.ec/oai.Ecuador...opendoar:41862020-08-01T01:14:29Repositorio Universidad de Cuenca - Universidad de Cuencafalse
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Evaluation of Markov Chain Based Drought Forecasts in an Andean Regulated River Basin Using the Skill Scores RPS and GMSS
title Evaluation of Markov Chain Based Drought Forecasts in an Andean Regulated River Basin Using the Skill Scores RPS and GMSS
spellingShingle Evaluation of Markov Chain Based Drought Forecasts in an Andean Regulated River Basin Using the Skill Scores RPS and GMSS
Aviles Anazco, Alex Manuel
Andean Basins
Drought Index
Forecast Evaluation
Markov Chains
Probabilistic Forecast
title_short Evaluation of Markov Chain Based Drought Forecasts in an Andean Regulated River Basin Using the Skill Scores RPS and GMSS
title_full Evaluation of Markov Chain Based Drought Forecasts in an Andean Regulated River Basin Using the Skill Scores RPS and GMSS
title_fullStr Evaluation of Markov Chain Based Drought Forecasts in an Andean Regulated River Basin Using the Skill Scores RPS and GMSS
title_full_unstemmed Evaluation of Markov Chain Based Drought Forecasts in an Andean Regulated River Basin Using the Skill Scores RPS and GMSS
title_sort Evaluation of Markov Chain Based Drought Forecasts in an Andean Regulated River Basin Using the Skill Scores RPS and GMSS
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Aviles Anazco, Alex Manuel
Celleri Alvear, Rolando Enrique
author Aviles Anazco, Alex Manuel
author_facet Aviles Anazco, Alex Manuel
Celleri Alvear, Rolando Enrique
author_role author
author2 Celleri Alvear, Rolando Enrique
author2_role author
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Andean Basins
Drought Index
Forecast Evaluation
Markov Chains
Probabilistic Forecast
topic Andean Basins
Drought Index
Forecast Evaluation
Markov Chains
Probabilistic Forecast
description On behalf of the decision-makers of Andean regulated river basins a drought index was developed to predict the occurrence and extent of drought events. Two stochastic models, the Markov Chain First Order (MCFO) and the Markov Chain Second Order (MCSO) model, predicting the frequency of monthly droughts were applied and the performance checked using two skill scores, respectively the ranked probability score (RPS) and the Gandin-Murphy skill score (GMSS). Data of the Chulco River basin (3200–4300 m.a.s.l.), situated in the Ecuadorian southern Andes, were employed to test the performance of both models. Results indicate that events with greater drought severity were more accurately predicted. The study also revealed the importance of verifying the quality of the forecasts and to have an assessment of the likely performance of the forecasting models before adopting any model and accepting the resulting information for decision-making.
publishDate 2015
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2015-01-01
2018-01-11T16:47:04Z
2018-01-11T16:47:04Z
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.none.fl_str_mv 9204741
https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84925504832&doi=10.1007%2fs11269-015-0921-2&partnerID=40&md5=24d7091906c1963a984992460bd964e7
http://dspace.ucuenca.edu.ec/handle/123456789/28988
10.1007/s11269-015-0921-2
identifier_str_mv 9204741
10.1007/s11269-015-0921-2
url https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84925504832&doi=10.1007%2fs11269-015-0921-2&partnerID=40&md5=24d7091906c1963a984992460bd964e7
http://dspace.ucuenca.edu.ec/handle/123456789/28988
dc.language.none.fl_str_mv en_US
language_invalid_str_mv en_US
dc.rights.none.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBLISHERS
publisher.none.fl_str_mv KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBLISHERS
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv Water Resources Management
reponame:Repositorio Universidad de Cuenca
instname:Universidad de Cuenca
instacron:UCUENCA
instname_str Universidad de Cuenca
instacron_str UCUENCA
institution UCUENCA
reponame_str Repositorio Universidad de Cuenca
collection Repositorio Universidad de Cuenca
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositorio Universidad de Cuenca - Universidad de Cuenca
repository.mail.fl_str_mv .
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