Fiscal sustainability in Costa Rica 1991-2013: A Montecarlo Approach
The following document is an application of the fiscal sustainability model for Costa Rican economy. The model uses the methodology of natural debt limit proposed by Mendoza and Oviedo (2009) as well as a set of Montecarlo simulations to estimate the probability of surpassing this limit. The model i...
| Autores: | , |
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| Tipo de documento: | artigo |
| Estado: | Versão publicada |
| Data de publicação: | 2014 |
| País: | Costa Rica |
| Recursos: | Universidad Nacional de Costa Rica |
| Repositório: | Portal de Revistas UNA |
| Idioma: | espanhol |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:ojs.www.una.ac.cr:article/6047 |
| Acesso em linha: | https://www.revistas.una.ac.cr/index.php/economia/article/view/6047 |
| Access Level: | Acceso aberto |
| Palavra-chave: | Simulation Montecarlo method Fiscal sustainability. Simulación Método Montecarlo sostenibilidad fiscal |
| Resumo: | The following document is an application of the fiscal sustainability model for Costa Rican economy. The model uses the methodology of natural debt limit proposed by Mendoza and Oviedo (2009) as well as a set of Montecarlo simulations to estimate the probability of surpassing this limit. The model is a simplification of the one applied by Tanner and Samake (2007) and Fernandez K. (2005). After forecasting a 3 year period a 76.09% probability to exceed the limit of debt was obtained indicating that the economy has a high risk of unsustainable debt, in this context is was proposed, based on the IRF’s, a possible contractive fiscal politic was encountered. |
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