Estimation of the neutral real interest rate for Costa Rica

A central bank that uses the interest rate as monetary policy instrument requires an estimation of the neutral real interest rate (NRIR) that allows it to define the monetary policy stance to achieve its inflation target. This paper estimates the NRIR from actual values of the Monetary Policy Rate (...

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Bibliographic Details
Authors: Muñoz-Salas, Evelyn, Rodríguez-Vargas, Adolfo
Format: article
Status:Published version
Publication Date:2017
Country:Costa Rica
Institution:Universidad de Costa Rica
Repository:Portal de Revistas UCR
Language:Spanish
OAI Identifier:oai:portal.ucr.ac.cr:article/31746
Online Access:https://revistas.ucr.ac.cr/index.php/economicas/article/view/31746
Access Level:Open access
Keyword:MONETARY POLICY
INFLATION
UNOBSERVABLE VARIABLES
POLÍTICA MONETARIA
INFLACIÓN
VARIABLES NO OBSERVABLES
Description
Summary:A central bank that uses the interest rate as monetary policy instrument requires an estimation of the neutral real interest rate (NRIR) that allows it to define the monetary policy stance to achieve its inflation target. This paper estimates the NRIR from actual values of the Monetary Policy Rate (TPM) for Costa Rica for the first time. This rate was established by the Central Bank of Costa Rica as its instrument for monetary control on June 2011. On the basis of monthly data from 2002-2015 and combining estimates from several methodologies, we estimate the neutral real interest rate for Costa Rica to be around 1,4%.