Extreme daily returns and the cross-section of expected returns: Evidence from Brazil

This paper examines whether extreme (positive) daily returns predict the cross-section of monthly stock returns in Brazil. We find a negative effect of the maximum (MAX) daily return on future performance which is in line with the findings from recent studies in the U.S. and Europe. High MAX stocks...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Berggrun, L., Cardona, E., Lizarzaburu, E.
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2017
País:Colombia
Institución:Universidad de los Andes
Repositorio:Séneca: repositorio Uniandes
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:repositorio.uniandes.edu.co:1992/47004
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/1992/47004
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0148296317302266
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Emerging markets
Maximum daily return
Idiosyncratic volatility
SkewnessLottery-like stocks
Panel regression
Descripción
Sumario:This paper examines whether extreme (positive) daily returns predict the cross-section of monthly stock returns in Brazil. We find a negative effect of the maximum (MAX) daily return on future performance which is in line with the findings from recent studies in the U.S. and Europe. High MAX stocks appear to cater to some investors who are looking for lottery-like stocks, as extreme positive return stocks offer the possibility of substantial gains with a low probability. Increased demand leads to overpricing of and ensuing lower returns to lottery-like stocks. Other proxies for extreme returns, such as idiosyncratic volatility and skewness, play a much weaker role (if any) as cross-sectional determinants of stock performance. We document that the MAX effect is significant only during economic contractions, thus suggesting that the gambling behavior in the stock market exacerbates during economic downturns.