Quantifying heat exposure and its related mortality in Rio de Janeiro City: evidence to support Rio’s recent heat protocol

Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública Sergio Arouca. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil / Secretaria Municipal de Saúde do Rio de Janeiro. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Morais, João Henrique de Araujo, Cruz, Débora Medeiros de Oliveira e, Saraceni, Valeria, Ferreira, Caroline Dias, Aguilar, Gislani Mateus Oliveira, Cruz, Oswaldo Gonçalves
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2018
País:Brasil
Institución:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)
Repositorio:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:arca.fiocruz.br:icict/30197
Acceso en línea:https://arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/30197
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Extreme heat
Mortality
Epidemiology
Elderly
Brazil
id BR_fa4c84d9f2da2dfd62e147536568a82e
oai_identifier_str oai:arca.fiocruz.br:icict/30197
network_acronym_str BR
network_name_str Brasil
repository_id_str
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv Quantifying heat exposure and its related mortality in Rio de Janeiro City: evidence to support Rio’s recent heat protocol
title Quantifying heat exposure and its related mortality in Rio de Janeiro City: evidence to support Rio’s recent heat protocol
spellingShingle Quantifying heat exposure and its related mortality in Rio de Janeiro City: evidence to support Rio’s recent heat protocol
Morais, João Henrique de Araujo
Extreme heat
Mortality
Epidemiology
Elderly
Brazil
title_short Quantifying heat exposure and its related mortality in Rio de Janeiro City: evidence to support Rio’s recent heat protocol
title_full Quantifying heat exposure and its related mortality in Rio de Janeiro City: evidence to support Rio’s recent heat protocol
title_fullStr Quantifying heat exposure and its related mortality in Rio de Janeiro City: evidence to support Rio’s recent heat protocol
title_full_unstemmed Quantifying heat exposure and its related mortality in Rio de Janeiro City: evidence to support Rio’s recent heat protocol
title_sort Quantifying heat exposure and its related mortality in Rio de Janeiro City: evidence to support Rio’s recent heat protocol
dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv Morais, João Henrique de Araujo
Cruz, Débora Medeiros de Oliveira e
Saraceni, Valeria
Ferreira, Caroline Dias
Aguilar, Gislani Mateus Oliveira
Cruz, Oswaldo Gonçalves
author Morais, João Henrique de Araujo
author_facet Morais, João Henrique de Araujo
Cruz, Débora Medeiros de Oliveira e
Saraceni, Valeria
Ferreira, Caroline Dias
Aguilar, Gislani Mateus Oliveira
Cruz, Oswaldo Gonçalves
author_role author
author2 Cruz, Débora Medeiros de Oliveira e
Saraceni, Valeria
Ferreira, Caroline Dias
Aguilar, Gislani Mateus Oliveira
Cruz, Oswaldo Gonçalves
author2_role author
author
author
author
author
dc.subject.en.none.fl_str_mv Extreme heat
Mortality
Epidemiology
Elderly
Brazil
topic Extreme heat
Mortality
Epidemiology
Elderly
Brazil
description Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública Sergio Arouca. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil / Secretaria Municipal de Saúde do Rio de Janeiro. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
publishDate 2018
dc.date.accessioned.fl_str_mv 2018-11-26T16:35:12Z
dc.date.available.fl_str_mv 2018-11-26T16:35:12Z
dc.date.issued.fl_str_mv 2025
dc.type.status.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
format article
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.citation.fl_str_mv MORAIS, João Henrique de Araujo et al. Quantifying heat exposure and its related mortality in Rio de Janeiro City: evidence to support Rio’s recent heat protocol. medRxiv, p. 1-38, Jan. 2025.
dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv https://arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/30197
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv 10.1101/2025.01.17.25320740
identifier_str_mv MORAIS, João Henrique de Araujo et al. Quantifying heat exposure and its related mortality in Rio de Janeiro City: evidence to support Rio’s recent heat protocol. medRxiv, p. 1-38, Jan. 2025.
10.1101/2025.01.17.25320740
url https://arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/30197
dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.driver.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
eu_rights_str_mv openAccess
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv medRxiv
publisher.none.fl_str_mv medRxiv
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)
instacron:FIOCRUZ
instname_str Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)
instacron_str FIOCRUZ
institution FIOCRUZ
reponame_str Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
collection Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)
bitstream.url.fl_str_mv https://arca.fiocruz.br/bitstreams/58cb0181-c206-4446-86a5-a5bfd58ebf04/download
https://arca.fiocruz.br/bitstreams/3811b9fa-e865-4beb-b9ae-bbfa27c32a18/download
https://arca.fiocruz.br/bitstreams/490a00ca-fe15-4ea5-aeef-fddc40915769/download
https://arca.fiocruz.br/bitstreams/fe29515f-9f88-4b0d-82a5-e9019a9bf0a1/download
bitstream.checksum.fl_str_mv 7d48c8041f6a177a2209a7549bd84b4c
9e7c3681d4cc1a372681d2c05f7df352
15f8da37f05442fea9d6726543912dba
fd58bfa90299fceb1ea34614a73c0352
bitstream.checksumAlgorithm.fl_str_mv MD5
MD5
MD5
MD5
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA) - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)
repository.mail.fl_str_mv repositorio.arca@fiocruz.br
_version_ 1853674370364342272
spelling 2018-11-26T16:35:12Z2018-11-26T16:35:12Z2025MORAIS, João Henrique de Araujo et al. Quantifying heat exposure and its related mortality in Rio de Janeiro City: evidence to support Rio’s recent heat protocol. medRxiv, p. 1-38, Jan. 2025.https://arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/3019710.1101/2025.01.17.25320740engmedRxivQuantifying heat exposure and its related mortality in Rio de Janeiro City: evidence to support Rio’s recent heat protocolinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleFundação Oswaldo Cruz. Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública Sergio Arouca. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil / Secretaria Municipal de Saúde do Rio de Janeiro. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Secretaria Municipal de Saúde do Rio de Janeiro. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil / Instituto de Educação Médica. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Secretaria Municipal de Saúde do Rio de Janeiro. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Secretaria Municipal de Saúde do Rio de Janeiro. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Secretaria Municipal de Saúde do Rio de Janeiro. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Presidência. Programa de Computação Científica. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.Under a climate change scenario, extreme heat episodes show an increase in frequency and intensity, with a scaling impact in Latin American cities. Recently, Rio de Janeiro City developed its heat protocol, using the amount of hours spent over specific heat thresholds as its trigger metric. This study gathers mortality data by 17 different causes in Rio, in a 12.5 year period (2012-2024). We use Distributed Lag Non-Linear Models (DLNM) to assess the relationship between different heat exposure metrics to mortality among the young (< 65) and elderly (>=65y), including a novel metric called Heat Area Above a Threshold (HAAT). In the study period, there were 466,121 deaths in the city from natural causes. Deaths due to diabetes, hypertensive diseases, Alzheimer's/dementia, renal failure and even undetermined deaths were strongly associated with extreme heat episodes, especially among the elderly. The proposed HAAT metric showed better performance on explaining mortality for most causes (10 out of the 17), when compared to temperature or heat index, or commonly used heat wave definitions. The results dialogue with Rio's heat protocol, evaluating the cut-off points defined and proposing simpler definitions using the HAAT metric. An exposure to a HAAT of 64°C*h increases mortality by natural causes by 50%, and 91.2°C*h already doubles the mortality risk. Main strengths of the study lie on the comparison of different heat exposure metrics and the investigation of cause-specific mortality in a period when recent and remarkable heat waves occurred. There is still fragility when considering a compound index such as the Heat Index, and social and spatial differences on heat-related mortality should also be considered in future models. The proposed metric, however, appears as a relevant indicator to distinguish unusually warm days that lead to elevated mortality, and could guide definitions for Heat Warning Systems.Extreme heatMortalityEpidemiologyElderlyBrazilinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA)instname:Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)instacron:FIOCRUZMorais, João Henrique de AraujoCruz, Débora Medeiros de Oliveira eSaraceni, ValeriaFerreira, Caroline DiasAguilar, Gislani Mateus OliveiraCruz, Oswaldo GonçalvesLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-83140https://arca.fiocruz.br/bitstreams/58cb0181-c206-4446-86a5-a5bfd58ebf04/download7d48c8041f6a177a2209a7549bd84b4cMD51falseAnonymousREADORIGINALpcatratamento-180426145258.pdfpcatratamento-180426145258.pdfapplication/pdf997276https://arca.fiocruz.br/bitstreams/3811b9fa-e865-4beb-b9ae-bbfa27c32a18/download9e7c3681d4cc1a372681d2c05f7df352MD52trueAnonymousREAD2018-11-17TEXTpcatratamento-180426145258.pdf.txtpcatratamento-180426145258.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain16603https://arca.fiocruz.br/bitstreams/490a00ca-fe15-4ea5-aeef-fddc40915769/download15f8da37f05442fea9d6726543912dbaMD515falseAnonymousREAD2018-11-17THUMBNAILpcatratamento-180426145258.pdf.jpgpcatratamento-180426145258.pdf.jpgGenerated Thumbnailimage/jpeg22270https://arca.fiocruz.br/bitstreams/fe29515f-9f88-4b0d-82a5-e9019a9bf0a1/downloadfd58bfa90299fceb1ea34614a73c0352MD516falseAnonymousREAD2018-11-17icict/301972025-12-11 08:33:24.947open.accessoai:arca.fiocruz.br:icict/30197https://arca.fiocruz.brRepositório InstitucionalPUBhttps://www.arca.fiocruz.br/oai/requestrepositorio.arca@fiocruz.bropendoar:21352025-12-11T11:33:24Repositório Institucional da FIOCRUZ (ARCA) - Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ)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
score 15,301603

Similares en LA Referencia