Consumption predictability: the role of credit conditions
The goal of this dissertation is to investigate the relationship between consumption and credit through a dynamic structural model. With impatient consumers and low income volatility, the dependence of consumption to consumer credit is a proxy of credit supply, opposing the usual interpretation. In...
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| Format: | master thesis |
| Status: | Published version |
| Publication Date: | 2021 |
| Country: | Brasil |
| Institution: | Universidade de São Paulo (USP) |
| Repository: | Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da USP |
| Language: | English |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:teses.usp.br:tde-26072021-095242 |
| Online Access: | https://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/96/96131/tde-26072021-095242/ |
| Access Level: | Open access |
| Keyword: | Consumo Consumption Credit Crédito Escolha doméstica intertemporal Intertemporal household choice |
| Summary: | The goal of this dissertation is to investigate the relationship between consumption and credit through a dynamic structural model. With impatient consumers and low income volatility, the dependence of consumption to consumer credit is a proxy of credit supply, opposing the usual interpretation. In this case, deregulation on credit markets would enhance the predictive power of consumer credit. However, with less impatient consumers and increased income volatility, more credit supply reduce the dependence of consumption to consumer credit. This theoretical evidence shows that there is ambiguity in interpreting the predictability of aggregate consumption, and understanding dependence of consumption to credit as a measure of credit constraints might be misleading. |
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