Deuda externa, crescimento y sostenabilidad
The paper presents a model intended to define and discuss the sustainability of external debts in “emergent markets.” The first sustainability condition is the existence of a maximum in the debt-output ratio. With some simple behavior hypotheses it is shown that sustainability depends on the initial...
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Estado: | Versión publicada |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2004 |
| País: | Brasil |
| Institución: | EDITORA 34 |
| Repositorio: | Revista de Economia Política |
| Idioma: | inglés |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:ojs2.centrodeeconomiapolitica.org:article/667 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://centrodeeconomiapolitica.org.br/repojs/index.php/journal/article/view/667 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Sustentabilidade dívida externa crescimento Sustainability external debt growth |
| Sumario: | The paper presents a model intended to define and discuss the sustainability of external debts in “emergent markets.” The first sustainability condition is the existence of a maximum in the debt-output ratio. With some simple behavior hypotheses it is shown that sustainability depends on the initial debt-exports ratio, the rate of growth of exports and the country-risk premium. An endogenous country-risk premium gives room for multiple equilibrium. The model allows the discussion of vulnerability vis-à-vis financial shocks and the propensity of the economy to jump to unsustainable paths. The first sustainability condition is not a stringent one. Two additional sustainability conditions are added: a positive rate of growth and a minimum in the domestic absorption-output ratio. The discussion of multiple equilibrium, vulnerability and the potential instability of sustainability is then extended. JEL Classification: F34; F32. |
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