Risk premia estimation in Brazil: wait until 2041
The estimation results of Brazilian risk premia are not robust in the literature. For instance, among the 133 market risk premium estimates reported on the literature, 41 are positives, 18 are negatives and the remainder are not significant. In this study, we investigate the grounds for this lack of...
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| Tipo de recurso: | tesis de maestría |
| Estado: | Versión publicada |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2016 |
| País: | Brasil |
| Institución: | Universidade de São Paulo (USP) |
| Repositorio: | Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da USP |
| Idioma: | inglés |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:teses.usp.br:tde-23082016-103818 |
| Acceso en línea: | http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/12/12138/tde-23082016-103818/ |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Asset pricing Modelos multifatoriais. Multi-factor model Precificação de ativos Prêmios de risco Risco Risk Risk premia |
| Sumario: | The estimation results of Brazilian risk premia are not robust in the literature. For instance, among the 133 market risk premium estimates reported on the literature, 41 are positives, 18 are negatives and the remainder are not significant. In this study, we investigate the grounds for this lack of consensus. First of all, we analyze the sensitivity of the US risk premia estimation to two relevant constraints present in the Brazilian market: the small number of assets (137 eligible stocks) and the short time-series sample available for estimation (14 years). We conclude that the second constrain, small T, has greater impact on the results. Following, we evaluate the two potential causes of problems for the risk premia estimation with small T: i) small sample bias on betas; ii) divergence between ex-post and ex-ante risk premia. Through Monte Carlo simulations, we conclude that for the T available for Brazil, the betas estimates are no longer a problem. However, it is necessary to wait until 2041 to be able to estimate ex-ante risk premia with Brazilian data. |
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