A semiparametric Bayesian approach to extreme value estimation

This paper is concerned with extreme value density estimation. The generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) beyond a given threshold is combined with a nonparametric estimation approach below the threshold. This semiparametric setup is shown to generalize a few existing approaches and enables density e...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Nascimento, Fernando Ferraz do, Gamerman, Dani, HEDIBERT FREITAS LOPES
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2012
País:Brasil
Institución:Instituição de Ensino Superior e de Pesquisa (INSPER)
Repositorio:Repositório Institucional da INSPER
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:repositorio.insper.edu.br:11224/4041
Acceso en línea:https://repositorio.insper.edu.br/handle/11224/4041
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Bayesian
GPD
Higher quantiles
MCMC
Threshold estimation
Nonparametric estimation of curves
Descripción
Sumario:This paper is concerned with extreme value density estimation. The generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) beyond a given threshold is combined with a nonparametric estimation approach below the threshold. This semiparametric setup is shown to generalize a few existing approaches and enables density estimation over the complete sample space. Estimation is performed via the Bayesian paradigm, which helps identify model components. Estimation of all model parameters, including the threshold and higher quantiles, and prediction for future observations is provided. Simulation studies suggest a few useful guidelines to evaluate the relevance of the proposed procedures. They also provide empirical evidence about the improvement of the proposed methodology over existing approaches. Models are then applied to environmental data sets. The paper is concluded with a few directions for future work.