Evidence of sectoral deindustrialization in Brazil: an analysis by ARDL models
Kaldorian literature argues that the deindustrialization process reduces the potential for long-term economic growth. Thus, identifying its causes is important to the formulation of effective policies. This article investigates the causes of Brazil deindustrialization from a sectoral perspective, ba...
| Autores: | , |
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Estado: | Versión publicada |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2023 |
| País: | Brasil |
| Institución: | Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP) |
| Repositorio: | Economia e Sociedade |
| Idioma: | portugués |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:ojs.periodicos.sbu.unicamp.br:article/8674529 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://periodicos.sbu.unicamp.br/ojs/index.php/ecos/article/view/8674529 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Desindustrialización Exportaciones Intensidad tecnológica ARDL Brasil Desindustrialização Exportações Intensidade tecnológica Deindustrialization Exports Technological intensity Brazil |
| Sumario: | Kaldorian literature argues that the deindustrialization process reduces the potential for long-term economic growth. Thus, identifying its causes is important to the formulation of effective policies. This article investigates the causes of Brazil deindustrialization from a sectoral perspective, based on the concept of deindustrialization by the reprimarization of the economy, whose loss of manufacturing sectors share in exports is justified, above all, by commodity prices and exchange rate appreciation. For this purpose, Autoregressive Distributed Lag models (ARDL) are estimated, with data from 2002 to 2021. Given that the effects of the variables analyzed are discrepant between the sectors, the results indicate that the deindustrialization in Brazil is heterogeneous, both between the categories by technological intensity and between the individual sectors. However, the short and long-term negative effects of the high commodity prices observed in several sectors corroborate the hypothesis of the economy reprimarization. |
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