| Sumario: | The demand for automotive natural gas has expanded significantly in the last ten years. This consumption growth has occurred due to the increase of the number of gas stations offering this type of fuel. The marketing strategy by endowing natural gas fuel in the gas station provides a safer device for loading to the customers. Based on this motivation, the objective of this study is auxiliary in the planning for expansion of the market of natural gas, providing the necessary tools to the several agents of the productive chain make their investments in an efficient way. Among these agents there are the distributing companies of natural gas, which can make forecasts of the expansion of its distribution nets, the investors in natural gas stations – which will clarified of the safety of their investments - and the companies that manage the conversion and adapt natural gas as a fuel can foresee their expansions. The analysis is made for the state of Ceará, where CEGAS is the dealer of natural gas of the state. Data base are supplied by CEGAS, Transit Department and the Companhia Petróleo Brasileiro S.A whose methodological base is addressed for the assembly of an econometric model. Through the statistically robust estimates the turning point of the natural gas fuel retail distribution can be reached, so that the entrance of new natural gas fuel stations into the market turns out to be unprofitable.
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