Dynamic Spatial Modeling for the design of prospective land use and cover scenarios in the municipality of Araraquara –SP
This article sought to analyze how dynamic spatial modeling can contribute to issues related to territorial planning, discussing the possibilities arising from the prospection of future land use and land cover scenarios, using the municipality of Araraquara-SP as a case study. The model was develope...
| Autores: | , |
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Estado: | Versión publicada |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2024 |
| País: | Brasil |
| Institución: | Universidade Estadual de Montes Claros (UNIMONTES) |
| Repositorio: | Revista Cerrados (Montes Claros. Online) |
| Idioma: | portugués |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:ojs2.periodicos.unimontes.br:article/7769 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://www.periodicos.unimontes.br/index.php/cerrados/article/view/7769 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Molusce Cenários futuros QGIS Future scenarios GIS Escenarios futoros SIG |
| Sumario: | This article sought to analyze how dynamic spatial modeling can contribute to issues related to territorial planning, discussing the possibilities arising from the prospection of future land use and land cover scenarios, using the municipality of Araraquara-SP as a case study. The model was developed using the MOLUSCE plugin on the QGIS platform, using mapping from the Map Biomes project (SOUZA, 2020) for the years 2000, 2010 and 2020, adopting the Artificial Neural Networks method to generate the potential for transition between land uses and land cover, and a cellular automaton model using the Monte Carlo approach (LIU, et al. 2001), prospecting a scenario for the year 2030. The results of the transition models were satisfactory, with a Kappa value of 0.72 for the 2000-2010 period and 0.68 for the 2010-2020 period. MOLUSCE analyzed the initial use map, the reference map and the simulated map, indicating a Kappa of 0.65 for the model's forecast. The conclusion is that MOLUSCE has projected a scenario that can help public managers in the planning of Araraquara's territory for the year 2030, considering the information that calibrated the model, demonstrating that the tool can be used for other case studies. |
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