Avaliação preliminar da sensibilidade dos modelos do CMIP5 a precipitação sazonal do Brasil tropical
The performances of the simulation of the present climate of the Tropical Brazil (BrT) are evaluated based on eight global climate simulation models, belonging to the set of experiments "phase five of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project" (CMIP5). In comparison with observations, the...
| Autores: | , , |
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| Formato: | artículo |
| Estado: | Versión publicada |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2013 |
| País: | Brasil |
| Recursos: | Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN) |
| Repositorio: | Repositório Institucional da UFRN |
| Idioma: | portugués |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:repositorio.ufrn.br:123456789/29240 |
| Acesso em linha: | https://repositorio.ufrn.br/jspui/handle/123456789/29240 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palavra-chave: | CMIP5 Cenários Futuros Simulação Climática |
| Resumo: | The performances of the simulation of the present climate of the Tropical Brazil (BrT) are evaluated based on eight global climate simulation models, belonging to the set of experiments "phase five of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project" (CMIP5). In comparison with observations, the models are able to capture the dominant features of rainfall during the period 1979-2005, including the spatial and seasonal variations, however assessments quarter regionalized showed discrepancies between the models and the observed. In terms of correlation the quarter March to May (MAM) was best represented by the models, and the quarter from December to February (DJF) had worse performance. The average RMSE was higher during the rainy season (austral summer and autumn), and values less intense during the dry period. The results of the CMIP5 models show that there is still difficulty in simulating the climatic pattern of some regions and seasons |
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