Desempenho das exportações goianas do complexo soja para os principais parceiros comerciais: uma aplicação do modelo gravitacional

The aim of this study was to analyze the performance of soy complex exports from the state of Goiás to the main importing countries - China, Netherlands, Thailand, France, South Korea, Spain, Germany and Iran - through the Gravity Model. The chosen period was from 2003 to 2019 and the destinations w...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor: Silva, Frederico Teodoro da
Tipo de recurso: tesis de maestría
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2023
País:Brasil
Institución:Universidade Federal de Goiás (UFG)
Repositorio:Repositório Institucional da UFG
Idioma:portugués
OAI Identifier:oai:repositorio.bc.ufg.br:tede/12695
Acceso en línea:http://repositorio.bc.ufg.br/tede/handle/tede/12695
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Agronegócio
Produção de soja
Dependência das exportações
China importadora
Competitividade internacional
Agribusiness
Soybean production
Export dependence
China importer
International competitiveness
OUTROS
Descripción
Sumario:The aim of this study was to analyze the performance of soy complex exports from the state of Goiás to the main importing countries - China, Netherlands, Thailand, France, South Korea, Spain, Germany and Iran - through the Gravity Model. The chosen period was from 2003 to 2019 and the destinations were selected because they had complete statistical information and because they represented approximately 88% of the Soy Complex exported by the state of Goiás. The Gravity Model was estimated in the formats Pooled, Fixed Effect and Random Effect, being the routines carried out in the R-4.1.2 software, taking into account the GDP of Goiás, the GDP of the importing country, the distance between the capitals, the price of soybeans and a binary variable that captures if China has a greater force in exports. According to the results of the three models, the export elasticity of the Soy Complex in relation to the GDP of Goiás is approximately 1.1% in the Pooled model, 0.64% in the Random Effect model. On the other hand, the export elasticity of the Soy Complex in relation to the GDP of the importing country is 1.81% in both the Fixed Effect model and the Random Effect model. The distance between the capitals was also a significant factor in the exports of the soy complex from Goiás. Furthermore, the results showed that China had a significantly greater influence on the soy complex exports from Goiás compared to the other importing countries. Therefore, the study concluded that it is vital to emphasize the strong dependence of Soy Complex exports from Goiás on China and the need to expand the diversification of these export destinations, in order to make them more diverse and less vulnerable to economic and political events restricted to a single country.