Modeling Importations and Exportations of Infectious Diseases via Travelers
This paper is an attempt to estimate the risk of infection importation and exportation by travelers. Two countries are considered: one disease-free country and one visited or source country with a running endemic or epidemic infectious disease. Two models are considered. In the first model (disease...
| Autores: | , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Estado: | Versión publicada |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2016 |
| País: | Brasil |
| Institución: | Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP) |
| Repositorio: | Repositório Institucional da UNIFESP |
| Idioma: | inglés |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:repositorio.unifesp.br:11600/58576 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-015-0135-z https://repositorio.unifesp.br/handle/11600/58576 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Infectious disease importation Infectious disease exportation Travelers Modeling Risk |
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Modeling Importations and Exportations of Infectious Diseases via TravelersInfectious disease importationInfectious disease exportationTravelersModelingRiskThis paper is an attempt to estimate the risk of infection importation and exportation by travelers. Two countries are considered: one disease-free country and one visited or source country with a running endemic or epidemic infectious disease. Two models are considered. In the first model (disease importation), susceptible individuals travel from their disease-free home country to the endemic country and come back after some weeks. The risk of infection spreading in their home country is then estimated supposing the visitors are submitted to the same force of infection as the local population but do not contribute to it. In the second model (disease exportation), it is calculated the probability that an individual from the endemic (or epidemic) country travels to a disease-free country in the condition of latent infected and eventually introduces the infection there. The input of both models is the force of infection at the visited/source country, assumed known. The models are deterministic, but a preliminary stochastic formulation is presented as an appendix. The models are exemplified with two distinct real situations: the risk of dengue importation from Thailand to Europe and the risk of Ebola exportation from Liberia to the USA.Univ Sao Paulo, Sch Med, Sao Paulo, BrazilFlorida Int Univ, CIARA, Miami, FL 33199 USAUmea Univ, Epidemiol & Global Hlth, Umea, SwedenHosp Sao Paulo, Escola Paulista Med, Sao Paulo, SP, BrazilFiocruz MS, PROCC, BR-21045900 Rio De Janeiro, BrazilLee Kong Chian Sch Med, Nanyang, SingaporeTechnol Univ, Singapore, SingaporeLondon Sch Hyg & Trop Med, London WC1, EnglandHosp Sao Paulo, Escola Paulista Med, Sao Paulo, SP, BrazilWeb of ScienceHSP/UNIFESPCNPqFAPESPMinistry of Health (Fundo Nacional de Saude)DengueToolsMinistry of Health Fundo Nacional de Saude: 27835/2012DengueTools: 282589LIM01-HCFMUSPSpringer2020-11-03T14:40:25Z2020-11-03T14:40:25Z2016info:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion185-209https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-015-0135-zBulletin Of Mathematical Biology. New York, v. 78, n. 2, p. 185-209, 2016.10.1007/s11538-015-0135-z0092-8240https://repositorio.unifesp.br/handle/11600/58576WOS:000371244900001ark:/48912/001300001h40kengBulletin Of Mathematical BiologyNew Yorkinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessreponame:Repositório Institucional da UNIFESPinstname:Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP)instacron:UNIFESPLopez, Luis FernandezAmaku, MarcosCoutinho, Francisco Antonio BezerraQuam, MikkelBurattini, Marcelo Nascimento [UNIFESP]Struchiner, Claudio JoseWilder-Smith, AnneliesMassad, Eduardo2022-02-03T11:55:37Zoai:repositorio.unifesp.br:11600/58576Repositório InstitucionalPUBhttp://www.repositorio.unifesp.br/oai/requestbiblioteca.csp@unifesp.bropendoar:34652022-02-03T11:55:37Repositório Institucional da UNIFESP - Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP)false |
| dc.title.none.fl_str_mv |
Modeling Importations and Exportations of Infectious Diseases via Travelers |
| title |
Modeling Importations and Exportations of Infectious Diseases via Travelers |
| spellingShingle |
Modeling Importations and Exportations of Infectious Diseases via Travelers Lopez, Luis Fernandez Infectious disease importation Infectious disease exportation Travelers Modeling Risk |
| title_short |
Modeling Importations and Exportations of Infectious Diseases via Travelers |
| title_full |
Modeling Importations and Exportations of Infectious Diseases via Travelers |
| title_fullStr |
Modeling Importations and Exportations of Infectious Diseases via Travelers |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Modeling Importations and Exportations of Infectious Diseases via Travelers |
| title_sort |
Modeling Importations and Exportations of Infectious Diseases via Travelers |
| dc.creator.none.fl_str_mv |
Lopez, Luis Fernandez Amaku, Marcos Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra Quam, Mikkel Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento [UNIFESP] Struchiner, Claudio Jose Wilder-Smith, Annelies Massad, Eduardo |
| author |
Lopez, Luis Fernandez |
| author_facet |
Lopez, Luis Fernandez Amaku, Marcos Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra Quam, Mikkel Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento [UNIFESP] Struchiner, Claudio Jose Wilder-Smith, Annelies Massad, Eduardo |
| author_role |
author |
| author2 |
Amaku, Marcos Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra Quam, Mikkel Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento [UNIFESP] Struchiner, Claudio Jose Wilder-Smith, Annelies Massad, Eduardo |
| author2_role |
author author author author author author author |
| dc.subject.por.fl_str_mv |
Infectious disease importation Infectious disease exportation Travelers Modeling Risk |
| topic |
Infectious disease importation Infectious disease exportation Travelers Modeling Risk |
| description |
This paper is an attempt to estimate the risk of infection importation and exportation by travelers. Two countries are considered: one disease-free country and one visited or source country with a running endemic or epidemic infectious disease. Two models are considered. In the first model (disease importation), susceptible individuals travel from their disease-free home country to the endemic country and come back after some weeks. The risk of infection spreading in their home country is then estimated supposing the visitors are submitted to the same force of infection as the local population but do not contribute to it. In the second model (disease exportation), it is calculated the probability that an individual from the endemic (or epidemic) country travels to a disease-free country in the condition of latent infected and eventually introduces the infection there. The input of both models is the force of infection at the visited/source country, assumed known. The models are deterministic, but a preliminary stochastic formulation is presented as an appendix. The models are exemplified with two distinct real situations: the risk of dengue importation from Thailand to Europe and the risk of Ebola exportation from Liberia to the USA. |
| publishDate |
2016 |
| dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2016 2020-11-03T14:40:25Z 2020-11-03T14:40:25Z |
| dc.type.driver.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
| dc.type.status.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
| format |
article |
| status_str |
publishedVersion |
| dc.identifier.uri.fl_str_mv |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-015-0135-z Bulletin Of Mathematical Biology. New York, v. 78, n. 2, p. 185-209, 2016. 10.1007/s11538-015-0135-z 0092-8240 https://repositorio.unifesp.br/handle/11600/58576 WOS:000371244900001 |
| dc.identifier.dark.fl_str_mv |
ark:/48912/001300001h40k |
| url |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-015-0135-z https://repositorio.unifesp.br/handle/11600/58576 |
| identifier_str_mv |
Bulletin Of Mathematical Biology. New York, v. 78, n. 2, p. 185-209, 2016. 10.1007/s11538-015-0135-z 0092-8240 WOS:000371244900001 ark:/48912/001300001h40k |
| dc.language.iso.fl_str_mv |
eng |
| language |
eng |
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Bulletin Of Mathematical Biology |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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openAccess |
| dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
185-209 |
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New York |
| dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Springer |
| publisher.none.fl_str_mv |
Springer |
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reponame:Repositório Institucional da UNIFESP instname:Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP) instacron:UNIFESP |
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Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP) |
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UNIFESP |
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UNIFESP |
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Repositório Institucional da UNIFESP |
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Repositório Institucional da UNIFESP |
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Repositório Institucional da UNIFESP - Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP) |
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biblioteca.csp@unifesp.br |
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1853670453090975744 |
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15.300724 |