The effect of education on the demographic dividend: an analysis of the Brazilian case

The demographic dividend has aroused interest among demographers and economists because it is seen as a window of oportunity for the economic development of countries that have experienced a demographic transition. There are reasons to question the sole virtuosity of the pure demographic dividend in...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Guimarães de Melo, Bruno, Rios-Neto, Eduardo
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2020
País:Brasil
Institución:Associação Brasileira de Estudos Populacionais (ABEP)
Repositorio:Revista brasileira de estudos de população (Online)
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:ojs.rebep.org.br:article/1429
Acceso en línea:https://rebep.org.br/revista/article/view/1429
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Demographic dividend
National Transfer Account (NTA)
Education
Dividendo demográfico
Cuentas Nacionales de Transferencias (CNT)
Educación
Contas Nacionais de Transferência (CNT)
Educação
Descripción
Sumario:The demographic dividend has aroused interest among demographers and economists because it is seen as a window of oportunity for the economic development of countries that have experienced a demographic transition. There are reasons to question the sole virtuosity of the pure demographic dividend in economic growth. Crespo-Cuaresma et al. (2014) found that educational expansion has an important role in economic gains during the demographic dividend. To verify these results for the Brazilian case, we performed a decomposition exercise of economic support ratio (ESR), an alternative to demographic dependency ratio, to analyze the first demographic dividend. A simulation, applied for the period from 1970 to 2100 considering three scenarios of educational expansion, shows that educational expansion was and will be responsible for a big share of the economic gains of the Brazilian demographic dividend period, outperforming the change in age structure effect. In addition, an increase in a work-age population with post-secondary education appears to potentialize these results.