Count time series with excess zeros: A Bayesian perspective using zero-adjusted distributions

Models for count data which are temporally correlated have been studied using many conditional distributions, such as the Poisson distribution, and the insertion of different dependence structures. Nonetheless, excess of zeros and over dispersion may be observed during the counting process and need...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Pala, Luiz Otávio de Oliveira, Carvalho, Marcela de Marillac, Sáfadi, Thelma
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2022
País:Brasil
Institución:Universidade Estadual de Londrina (UEL)
Repositorio:Revista Semina: Ciências Exatas e Tecnológicas (Online)
Idioma:inglés
OAI Identifier:oai:ojs2.ojs.uel.br:article/46036
Acceso en línea:https://ojs.uel.br/revistas/uel/index.php/semexatas/article/view/46036
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Processo ARMA(p, q)
Dados de contagem
Metropolis-hastings
Regressão e Correlação
Análise de Dados
Inferência Paramétrica
ARMA(p, q) process
Count data
Descripción
Sumario:Models for count data which are temporally correlated have been studied using many conditional distributions, such as the Poisson distribution, and the insertion of different dependence structures. Nonetheless, excess of zeros and over dispersion may be observed during the counting process and need to be considered when modelling and choosing a conditional distribution. In this paper, we propose models for counting time series using zero-adjusted distributions by inserting a dependence structure following the ARMA(p, q) process on a Bayesian framework. We perform a simulation study using the proposed Bayesian analysis and analyse the monthly time series of the number of deaths due to dengue haemorrhagic fever (ICD-A91) in Brazil.