Simulação do desenvolvimento, crescimento e produtividade de soja em condições climáticas atuais e futuras para o Rio Grande do Sul

Soybean is a mainly agricultural world commodity, with United States, Brazil, and Argentina as mainly producers. This thesis had as objectives (i) evaluate the SoySim model to simulate growth, development, and yield of soybean cultivars with maturity groups greater than 4.2 in a subtropical region o...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor: Cera, Jossana Ceolin
Tipo de recurso: tesis doctoral
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2016
País:Brasil
Institución:Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)
Repositorio:Manancial - Repositório Digital da UFSM
Idioma:portugués
OAI Identifier:oai:repositorio.ufsm.br:1/3635
Acceso en línea:http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/3635
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Glycine max (L.) Merr
Modelo SoySim
Modelo CROPGRO-Soybean
Cenários climáticos futuros
SoySim model
CROPGRO-Soybean model
Future climate scenarios
CNPQ::CIENCIAS AGRARIAS::ENGENHARIA AGRICOLA
Descripción
Sumario:Soybean is a mainly agricultural world commodity, with United States, Brazil, and Argentina as mainly producers. This thesis had as objectives (i) evaluate the SoySim model to simulate growth, development, and yield of soybean cultivars with maturity groups greater than 4.2 in a subtropical region of Brazil and (ii) simulate the soybean yield potential and rainfed in the Rio Grande do Sul State in two climate futuro scenarios of IPCC (SRES A1B and RCP4.5) with the crop models SoySim and CROPGRO-Soybean. To reach the first objective, were used data from field experiments with 20 soybean cultivars, in 38 diferent sowing dates during 2010/2011, 2011/2012, 2012/2013, 2013/2014 and 2014/2015 growing seasons, in 12 locations at Rio Grande do Sul State. The soybean cultivars have maturity group varying between 4.8 and 8.2 and indeterminate and semi-determinate growth habit. The evaluation of the SoySim model show reasonable simulations of the variables of the V-stage and R-stage, final node number, and yield, but in general, the simulations that had the lower errors, were those with maturity groups lower than 6.0. For the second objective, the simulations with the emission scenarios SRES A1B and RCP4.5 forcing the crop models SoySim and CROPGRO-Soybean showed an increase on soybean yield in Rio Grande do Sul State until the end of the XXI century, with a positive change around 2 Mg ha-1 for the 2070-2099 period related to the baseline (1980-2009).