Further investigation of the uncertain trend in U.S. GDP
The presence of deterministic or stochastic trend in U.S. GDP has been a continuing debate in the literature of macroeconomics. Ben-David and Papell (1995) found evindence in favor of trend stationarity using the secular sample of Maddison (1995). More recently, Murray and Nelson (2000) correctly cr...
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| Tipo de recurso: | tesis de maestría |
| Estado: | Versión publicada |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2005 |
| País: | Brasil |
| Institución: | Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) |
| Repositorio: | Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) |
| Idioma: | inglés |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:repositorio.fgv.br:10438/60 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10438/60 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | U.S. GDP Trend Stationarity Stochastic vs. Deterministic Trend Additive Outliers Economia Análise de séries temporais Econometria |
| Sumario: | The presence of deterministic or stochastic trend in U.S. GDP has been a continuing debate in the literature of macroeconomics. Ben-David and Papell (1995) found evindence in favor of trend stationarity using the secular sample of Maddison (1995). More recently, Murray and Nelson (2000) correctly criticized this nding arguing that the Maddison data are plagued with additive outliers (AO), which bias inference towards stationarity. Hence, they propose to set the secular sample aside and conduct inference using a more homogeneous but shorter time-span post-WWII sample. In this paper we re-visit the Maddison data by employing a test that is robust against AO s. Our results suggest the U.S. GDP can be modeled as a trend stationary process. |
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