Macroeconomic effects of social security in a demographic bonus context: simulating a life cycle model

This paper analyzes the impact of fiscal and social security policies in the presence of demographic bonuses in a dynamic general equilibrium model with life cycle hypothesis. Based on the theoretical framework proposed by Gertler (1999), but allowing a non-stationary demographic structure, the cont...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores: Reichert, Henrique, Bonini, Patricia, Fernandes Custodio, Carolina
Tipo de recurso: artículo
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2021
País:Brasil
Institución:Associação Brasileira de Estudos Populacionais (ABEP)
Repositorio:Revista brasileira de estudos de população (Online)
Idioma:portugués
OAI Identifier:oai:ojs.rebep.org.br:article/1818
Acceso en línea:https://rebep.org.br/revista/article/view/1818
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Demographic transition
Demographic shocks
Social security
Life cycle model
Transición demográfica
Bonos demográficos
Seguridad social
Modelo de ciclo de vida
Transição demográfica
Bônus demográfico
Seguridade social
Descripción
Sumario:This paper analyzes the impact of fiscal and social security policies in the presence of demographic bonuses in a dynamic general equilibrium model with life cycle hypothesis. Based on the theoretical framework proposed by Gertler (1999), but allowing a non-stationary demographic structure, the context of the demographic bonus was captured to infer the impact of tax and social security policy on income distribution during the demographic bonus phase. The results of the simulations indicate that the temporary increase in the share of workers in the population generates an increase in savings and a reduction in interest rates, while the behavior of the capital stock in the economy showed that the trajectory is an inverted U shape, as already suggested in the literature. In addition, it was seen that policies increasing the degree of social security contribution are tools to stimulate consumption and income redistribution in favor of retirees. The contribution of the paper is the analysis of macroeconomics implications of a demographic dividend with investment and fully microfounded consumption decisions. Keywords: Demographic Transition. Demographic shocks. Social Security. Life cycle model.