CRISES CAMBIAIS DOS ANOS 1990: UMA ANÁLISE SOB O ENFOQUE CUSTO-BENEFÍCIO À BARRO-GORDON
This article aims to verify if the countiies involved in the main currency crises of the 90's would be announced as vulnerables to the respective ciises, basing the predictions on a score of crisis evaluation defined by the loss function of Barro-Gordon (1983). This crisis score depends on infl...
| Autores: | , , |
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| Tipo de recurso: | artículo |
| Estado: | Versión publicada |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2009 |
| País: | Brasil |
| Institución: | Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS) |
| Repositorio: | Análise Econômica (Online) |
| Idioma: | portugués |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:seer.ufrgs.br:article/10797 |
| Acceso en línea: | https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/AnaliseEconomica/article/view/10797 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palabra clave: | Modelo Barro-Gordon. Crises cambiais. Função perda. Análise discriminante. Análise de agrupamento. JEL Classification F30 F41 Barro-Gordon model. Currency crises. Loss function. Discriminant analysis. Cluster analysis. |
| Sumario: | This article aims to verify if the countiies involved in the main currency crises of the 90's would be announced as vulnerables to the respective ciises, basing the predictions on a score of crisis evaluation defined by the loss function of Barro-Gordon (1983). This crisis score depends on inflation and on the GDP growth. It is a construct defined with the use of multivariate statistical methods. In this context the countiies in the sample are evaluated. Cluster analysis is employed to identify the more vulnerable to currency crises. This classification is validated via discriminant analysis. The results are consistent with the literature. |
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