A comparative study on combinations of forecasts and their individual forecasts by means of simulated series
Over the years, several studies that compare individual forecasts with the combination of forecasts were published. There is, however, no unanimity in the conclusions. Furthermore, methods of combination by regression are poorly explored. This paper presents a comparative study of three methods of c...
| Autores: | , |
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| Formato: | artículo |
| Estado: | Versión publicada |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2019 |
| País: | Brasil |
| Recursos: | Universidade Estadual de Maringá (UEM) |
| Repositorio: | Acta scientiarum. Technology (Online) |
| Idioma: | inglés portugués |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:periodicos.uem.br/ojs:article/41452 |
| Acesso em linha: | http://www.periodicos.uem.br/ojs/index.php/ActaSciTechnol/article/view/41452 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palavra-chave: | combinations of forecasts forecasting accuracy simulation. |
| Resumo: | Over the years, several studies that compare individual forecasts with the combination of forecasts were published. There is, however, no unanimity in the conclusions. Furthermore, methods of combination by regression are poorly explored. This paper presents a comparative study of three methods of combination and their individual forecasts. Based on simulated data, it is evaluated the accuracy of Artificial Neural Networks, ARIMA and exponential smoothing models; calculating the combined forecasts through simple average, minimum variance and regression methods. Four accuracy measurements, MAE, MAPE, RMSE and Theil’s U, were used for choosing the most accurate method. The main contribution is the accuracy of the combination by regression methods. |
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