Why economics should be a modest and reasonable science
Unlike the methodological sciences such as mathematics and decision theory, which use the hypothetical-deductive method and may be fully expressed in complex mathematical models because their only truth criterion is logical consistency, the substantive sciences have as their truth criterion the corr...
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| Formato: | artículo |
| Estado: | Versión publicada |
| Fecha de publicación: | 2012 |
| País: | Brasil |
| Recursos: | Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) |
| Repositorio: | Repositório Institucional do FGV (FGV Repositório Digital) |
| Idioma: | inglés |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:repositorio.fgv.br:10438/9258 |
| Acesso em linha: | http://hdl.handle.net/10438/9258 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palavra-chave: | Probability Uncertainty Modesty Method Neoclassical economics Economia Escola neoclássica de economia Probabilidades |
| Resumo: | Unlike the methodological sciences such as mathematics and decision theory, which use the hypothetical-deductive method and may be fully expressed in complex mathematical models because their only truth criterion is logical consistency, the substantive sciences have as their truth criterion the correspondence to reality, adopt an empirical-deductive method, and are supposed to generalize from and often unreliable regularities and tendencies. Given this assumption, it is very difficult for economists to predict economic behavior, particularly major financial crises. |
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