Modelando a volatilidade da taxa de câmbio BRL/USD : evidências às razões e efetividades de hedge

Spot and future BRL/USD exchange rates were used to estimate the optimal hedge ratio and hedging effectiveness. The tests show evidence of ARCH effects, non-Gaussian distributions, a cointegrating vector equal to the "basis", and non-constant conditional correlations. Thus the series were...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor: Rodrigues, Marcos Aurelio
Tipo de recurso: tesis de maestría
Estado:Versión publicada
Fecha de publicación:2010
País:Brasil
Institución:Universidade Estadual de Maringá (UEM)
Repositorio:Repositório Institucional da Universidade Estadual de Maringá (RI-UEM)
Idioma:portugués
OAI Identifier:oai:localhost:1/3478
Acceso en línea:http://repositorio.uem.br:8080/jspui/handle/1/3478
Access Level:acceso abierto
Palabra clave:Razão ótima de hedge
Efetividade de hedge
Hedge
Taxa de câmbio
Brasil.
Effectiveness
Optimal hedge ratio
Exchange rate
Brazil.
Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
Economia
Descripción
Sumario:Spot and future BRL/USD exchange rates were used to estimate the optimal hedge ratio and hedging effectiveness. The tests show evidence of ARCH effects, non-Gaussian distributions, a cointegrating vector equal to the "basis", and non-constant conditional correlations. Thus the series were modeled using multivariate GARCH with error-correction term equal to the lagged "basis" and a Studentized distribution. The results point out superior hedge effectiveness, in sample (48%) and out of sample (66%), for the DCC GJR model under a t distribution.