From the Treatise of Probability to the General Theory: the concept of rationality in Keynes
The purpose of this paper is to re-assess the role of uncertainty in Keynes’s macroeconom-ics by exploring the concepts of probability, rational belief and rational action, as they ap-pear in the Treatise on Probability. Three main claims are then made. First, there exist sub-stantial links between...
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| Formato: | artículo |
| Estado: | Versión publicada |
| Fecha de publicación: | 1992 |
| País: | Brasil |
| Recursos: | EDITORA 34 |
| Repositorio: | Revista de Economia Política |
| Idioma: | portugués |
| OAI Identifier: | oai:ojs2.centrodeeconomiapolitica.org:article/1403 |
| Acesso em linha: | https://centrodeeconomiapolitica.org.br/repojs/index.php/journal/article/view/1403 |
| Access Level: | acceso abierto |
| Palavra-chave: | Probability rationality Keynes Probabilidade racionalidade |
| Resumo: | The purpose of this paper is to re-assess the role of uncertainty in Keynes’s macroeconom-ics by exploring the concepts of probability, rational belief and rational action, as they ap-pear in the Treatise on Probability. Three main claims are then made. First, there exist sub-stantial links between the conception of human rationality in the Treatise on Probability and that in the General Theory. Secondly, Keynes attributes considerable importance to the ration-al elements involved in the process of investment decision and suggests that they normally lead to macroeconomic stability. Instability is thus explained by a specific institutional shock to an economy, which is already prone to crises due to the imperfect working of certain key markets. From this perspective, the post-Keynesian literature is misleading in blaming uncer-tainty for capitalist instability and unemployment. Thirdly, following Keynes’s hints, I sug-gest that an institutionalist research programme would provide a firm basis to model invest-ment behaviour under uncertainty in a more realistic way than usually done. JEL Classification: B3; B4. |
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